Saturday, May 07, 2005

Primary '05

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us Thoughts on June 14th- Governors election-Mayor George Fitch will pull between 15 and 25% from former Attorney General Kilgore. These will be more votes against Kilgore than for Fitch, but will help the Mayor's name id in a possible State Senate race against Mark Take and Phil Griffin down the road. This percentage will not be enough to drastically hurt the Kilgore campaign, and Jerry will easily roll on to take on Tim Kaine in November. Lieutenant Governor- This race will be close. It is not so much as for Bill Bolling to win, but for Sean Connaughton to lose. Bolling will have the average right-wing voter, but Sean Connaughton's inroads in Tidewater, the Shannendoah Valley, and his obvious base in Northern Virginia could be enough to push him ahead out ontop. The Connaughton campaign needs to focus on turnout in his home county of Prince William, and neighboring moderate Fairfax. If they can get out their targeted numbers in these two counties, the election goes to Connaughton. Attorney General-Bob McDonnell will crush Steve Baril by far more than 5%, and will carry his base of Tidewater , and Northern Virginia by many pecentage points. Steve Baril might carry Richmond Metro, and although he's outraised Delegate McDonnell, his late entry, and lack of name id will be enough to lose the election. It will be interesting to see exactly what percent George Fitch can pull from Jerry Kilgore, as well as if the Connaughton campaign can get their act together, and take this election from pre-ordained Bolling.

5 Comments:

At 5/09/2005 02:29:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't know about the LG. Bolling's from an are that pulled large numbers for Bush in '04 and has a strong Republican primary in the 54th to increase turnout at home. Not sure if that's enough to offset, but it'll help.

 
At 5/09/2005 07:06:00 AM, Blogger Abitmorered said...

Less we forget, Jill Holtzman already threw her hat into the ring against Tate, Griffin and possibly Fitch.

 
At 5/10/2005 05:53:00 PM, Anonymous Dutch said...

On the LG race - have you factored in this week's announcement giving Bolling the Hunting Dog Owners' Association endorsement. Seems to me that this may give Bolling the kind of momentum that has seemed lacking in recent months.

 
At 5/12/2005 08:23:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

G RACE - Kilgore 80%
LTG RACE - Bolling's ahead - but will pull all the stops - mostly negative -
NRA will pull him through on election day in a close contest. Depends on turnout in NOVA and HR.
AG - McDonnell 56%

 
At 5/12/2005 10:20:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

What do you mean by NRA...?

 

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