Tuesday, June 21, 2005

Raisng the Dollars in PWC

The Potomac News did a story on the amount of money raised by the Prince William Delegate incumbents and their November opponents. Typical of the Post this data was available on the 15th and their just now doing a story on the issue. I think the Frederick/Barg race is going to be an extremely tough fight this campaign season. Del. Frederick is a tough worker that will hussle every minute between now and November. He has a good wife that "gets it" and seems to help drive much of the political and fundraising aspects of Jeff's life. She is honestly one of his best assets. Supervisor Barg is a seasoned campaigner. She will not be able to run around pounding on as many doors as Del Frederick, but she is well known in the district. If anyone has a chance of knocking out an incumbent Republican it is this candidate in this district. Current read at TC: Lean Frederick

14 Comments:

At 6/21/2005 08:14:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I believe the Manassas paper did a similar (maybe the same) article on the fund raising. It'll be interesting to see what happens. In Manassas, Harry Parrish won his primary race but the Democrats have actually put forward a candidate. I haven't met him yet but I'm interested to, I always think that competition is a good thing in politics.

-AndyH

 
At 6/21/2005 08:51:00 AM, Blogger Mitch Cumstein said...

This will definitely be a fun race to watch. MR JMS hit the nail on the head where Amy is concerned. Tremendous asset for Jeff and a great person.

Barg will undoubtedly give Frederick a run for his money in terms of fundraising. Because of its competitive nature, we'll see a significant amount of money coming in for both sides from well outside of the district. I think the bigger question will be whether Barg has the grassroots and groundtroops to pull this off. Let's not forget, while Hilda's popular in her district, it makes up only 6 of the 16 precincts in the 52nd. And, while her district re-elected her by a comfortable margain, Jeff won those 6 Woodbridge precincts with a combined 52% of the vote and won most of the remainder of the 52nd by a significantly higher margain.

Barg could pull this off, but I've got to agree that this race currently leans Frederick. It will be interesting to see to what extent other local politicians get involved in this race. If Frederick has the full weight of the county GOP behind him, he should win comfortably. If he doesn't, it could be very interesting.

 
At 6/21/2005 09:35:00 AM, Blogger James Young said...

AndyH is correct, but he should be aware that the PotNews/MJM are two sides of the same coin, and articles in one are almost alwasy in the other.

Not much to disagree with in mitch's or the original post, either, though I think Hilda's chances are overrated. She's probably the most credible candidate the Dems could have run. That having been said, (1) it's mostly Mark Warner's money; and (2) her campaign hasn't done much. I've seen anonymous Dem posters elsewhere (maybe just one) who said her announcement was a disaster, and that her campaign is what a Marine would call a "CF."

One thing to remember, too, is that Scott Lingamfelter's gotten a free ride this year, after beating another Dem heavyweight last time (Dave Brickley). I would expect him to aid in Jeff's and Bob Marshall's campaigns.

 
At 6/21/2005 10:23:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah, I know that the MJM and PN are essentially the same paper. I write an opinion column for the MJM.

-AndyH

 
At 6/21/2005 11:28:00 AM, Blogger James Young said...

Didn't know that. Don't get the MJM on the east side of the County, but checked the website.

 
At 6/21/2005 01:01:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't know if my column is on the website. For the longest time it wasn't. Their website is somewhat screwy....

-AndyH

 
At 6/21/2005 01:16:00 PM, Blogger James Young said...

Your column was there (I scrolled down in Opinion to find it) but don't depend on it. Before I was canned by the Pot News, their postings of my column were somewhat irregular, too, and it's the same people doing it.

 
At 6/21/2005 01:22:00 PM, Blogger MR JMS said...

Potomac News and MJM are not that great. It was one of the few things I was glad to leave behind when I left Woodbridge a year and a half ago.

 
At 6/21/2005 01:45:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

They aren't that great but if you go back and look at the copies in the library from the early 70's on back, the quality is shocking. I'm unsure it ran every day but it is stocked almost completely with local news that was pretty well written. The stuff from the 50's is also pretty interesting but from a historical perspective. It shows you just how little things change in small-town America. People in Manassas are complaining about lack of parking in old town - same as they were in the 50's.

-AndyH

 
At 6/23/2005 11:57:00 AM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

I just don't see Hilda being able to pull it off. I sort of view her as the reluctant candidate, only talked into running for this seat by the Governor and his assurance that he'd give money to her campaign.

She came to the Southbridge Annual Meeting last month, but didn't do much mingling. Maureen Caddigan was there as well. Now SHE is someone who knows how to really work a room. Same thing at the grand opening of the new Shoppers supermarket on Route 234 a few weeks ago. Maureen was everywhere greeting people at 8:15 AM while Hilda was off in a corner with a few of her own people.

Jeff just has to watch out not to pull a "Lazio" on Hilda and make her a sympathetic figure. Hilda's main problem will be her 20 year record on the Board and what Route 1 in Woodbridge turned into during that time. She'll try to claim credit for the current plans to revitalize it, but those plans wouldn't be necessary if she had done her job over the past two decades in the first place.

 
At 6/23/2005 07:41:00 PM, Blogger James Young said...

I think that's a sound analysis, Jim. Warner had to do the old balancing between name ID and vigor, and chose the former as his best shot. Problem is, Hilda's been there for so long that she was the only Dem with it, and there's no other elected Dem in the District.

Maybe Lee Stoffregen could have taken a shot (if he's in the district; I think he is), and I think he'd be a credible candidate, but I can't imagine why he'd want to after his experience two years ago. Particularly since that would probably have provoked Chairman Sean's involvement out of spite (the one thing that might have made him enthusiastic for Frederick, even if he'd won the nomination for LG). On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if Lee turned up as a Republican eventually. There was some talk a few years back of him switching affiliations.

 
At 6/24/2005 11:58:00 AM, Anonymous Marty Nohe said...

Unless he has moved very recently, Lee Stoffregen lives in Bren Forest, which is in the 51st District.

 
At 6/26/2005 07:50:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

John Kerry clearly won the district as did Mark Warner and Toddy Puller. Tom Davis lost much of this district against a very weak challenger 4 or 6 years ago (which is why he gave it up last redistricting). 6 of the 16 precincts are her supervisor district for many years, 4 precincts south of that are clearly Democratic. Only 4 precincts lean Republican (Montclair). She should be able to hold her own there with the support of many long-time residents and her own name ID etc.

I believe she is already ahead in terms of name ID, and actual votes. She is more the incumbent than the one-term delegate is.

Fredrick and his wife are hard workers no doubt and that is their best asset.

Most of the money Hilda raised is from her own doing (she is a sitting Supervisor). Only around 10K is from Warner - the other @$180,000 raised is hers.

I was at the announcement, it was fine, nothing speacial. The governor and over 400 people were there. I counted b/c that is what I do. Good cross section of the community.

I believe that as Frederick goes door-to-door he will run into a lot of people who say nicely "thank you very much but I have known Hilda for a long-time."

 
At 6/27/2005 01:31:00 PM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

The precincts in Hilda's district are small compared to the big ones in the Dumfries District that are heavily GOP. Same thing goes for the Democratic-leaning precincts in Dumfries. The number of precincts doesn't matter -- the size of them does and the mega-precincts in the district are reflexively heavily GOP.

An additional problem is that Potomac Precinct is no longer the Dem territory it once was and it is getting bigger by the day. (Not a single sign for any Democrat Lt. Gov. candidate was there on election day while there were many GOP signs for Kilgore, Connaughton, Bolling and McDonnell.)

First, it is represented by Maureen Caddigan who broke 70% there last election. (Connaughton also scored such lofty percentages there as well.)

Second, the bulk of new voters in there are from my community of Southbridge and with the average single-family home price there now starting at $600,000 and the average townhouse now going for over $300,000, the demographic is trending towards married couples with young children (which in the past few election cycles have become heavily Republican.)

Third, many of the Cherry Hill residents and family members of Hilda's have been selling off their land to KSI for the Harbor Station development and are no longer voters in the district.

Finally, once newcomers see that Hilda is the Woodbridge Supervisor and put that together with the rundown appearance of Route 1 throughout much of Woodbridge, they'll be asking themselves if that is what they want the rest of the state to look like -- a boarded up mess.

 

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