Sunday, July 17, 2005

NLS on Del Frederick's Race...

Not Larry Sabato(which one I do not know) has some analysis on the Frederick/Barg race in the 52nd District. This race should be interesting. As of I now I would still plan on putting one in the win column for Frederick. Hilda will give him a race, but it will be an uphill battle she is not used to as Supervisor. I am amused though by NLS' reference to Davis and Connaughton on Frederick's website. I would not be very suprised if the majority of hardcore Davis/Connaughton "moderates" will be pulling the Barg lever on November 8th. Big question over here at TC... When does Amy Frederick run for office??? I would vote for her over her husband anyday of the week.

16 Comments:

At 7/18/2005 01:54:00 PM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

Amy should take on Sen. Toddy Puller in 2007. The contrast between Amy and Puller would be devastating to the Widow Puller.

 
At 7/18/2005 02:26:00 PM, Blogger MR JMS said...

My money is that Braunlich goes again.

 
At 7/19/2005 07:04:00 AM, Anonymous NoVA Scout said...

Chris Braunlich is a superb thinker and gentleman who could do a lot of good for Virginia. I'd back him in a minute.

 
At 7/19/2005 11:03:00 AM, Blogger MR JMS said...

Agreed.

 
At 7/19/2005 01:23:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What about Corey Stewart. I think he'd make a great state senate candidate.

 
At 7/19/2005 01:32:00 PM, Blogger MR JMS said...

He could, though PWC does not encompass enough of the district in my opinion.

Stewart needs to worry about his popularity in my opinion though. He led the charge in attacking Connaughton in the LG race. But, the district Sean did the best in was Occoquan(70-30 margin). The seat also barely went bush to the tune of 52-48(or something like that). Do not be suprised to see someone like Mike May or John Gray jump in a primary against Stewart.

The bigger question is this... If Mabie leaves in 2007 and McQuigg runs for Clerk who faces off for Delegate? McQuigg vacating could lead to a big shake-up through out Occoquan. And imagine the uncertainty if we have Connaughton, Mabie, and Colgan all sit on the sidelines for 2007.

 
At 7/19/2005 01:58:00 PM, Blogger James Young said...

Long-time PWC activists (OK, those from three years ago, which qualifies as "long-time" in some parts of NoVA) know that Corey toyed with the idea of running for that seat in 2003, when my wife was the PWC representative for the District Committee. Some wisely suggested that he get some seasoning first. He'll be a much more credible candidate this time if he runs for the seat. However, I would hate to have to choose between Amy, Chris, and Corey. All three are superb human beings, and good Conservatives.

 
At 7/19/2005 02:03:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interesting. John Gray I could see--it's obvious that he can't stand Corey based on all his letters to the editor. But I thought Mike and Corey were pretty close (both politically and personally). Theirs seemed to be one of those few primaries that didn't get nasty and both camps actually did seem to come together at the end. Or was that all for show?

 
At 7/19/2005 03:18:00 PM, Anonymous PWC Blogger said...

I don't think Mike would jump in to challenge Corey in a primary--unless it a primary for a state delegate seat or other open seat.

 
At 7/20/2005 10:22:00 AM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

I was actually surprised back when Corey shifted from the senate race to the supervisors race in 2003. He had signs and was putting together a senate campaign and everything. Next thing I knew, he was in the supervisors race (of course, it had become an open seat in the meantime, so that explains a lot.)

I could see him going for senator, delegate or county chairman in 2007. He does need to focus on his district for now, though, as others have pointed out. He may also be aligning himself with the "no growthers" too much as well. There are a number of projects that he has been the sole "no" vote on that are popular with the residents in the area of the proposals that could come back to haunt him.

 
At 7/20/2005 01:13:00 PM, Blogger MR JMS said...

My campaign against Stewart....


"Corey Stewart voted against every proposal to lower your property tax rate."


You and I know it is because he wanted the rate even lower, but make him explain that one.

 
At 7/20/2005 01:25:00 PM, Blogger James Young said...

Re: John Gray v. Corey in GOP primary. The problem is that John Gray is not a Republican. After all, he ran for the Dem nomination in 2003. Are Occoquan Republicans likely to forget that?

 
At 7/20/2005 01:40:00 PM, Anonymous PWC Blogger said...

Who is to say it would be a primary? In a convention, a Republicrat like Gray would be toast.

 
At 7/20/2005 02:51:00 PM, Anonymous mitch's wife said...

Just my humble opinion...

Amy doesn't want to run for office. Much like Heidi Stirrup, Kris Nohe or Jim Caddigan, she would make a formidible candidate, but prefers the role of hard charging spouse over that of elected official.

As for Corey Stewart and the Senate seat, he would be smart to run for it. For a lot of reason that I won't go into, he could win the Senate seat. But he would have have a hard time getting re-elected, the House seat will go to whomever McQuigg and/or Connaughton get behind (which won't be Corey) and the field of Chairman candidates is too thick to be a safe bet for him.

 
At 7/20/2005 04:45:00 PM, Blogger MR JMS said...

Stirrup, Covington, Stewart, Caddigan, Nohe... They all can be seen as running.

 
At 7/21/2005 02:51:00 PM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

Stirrup, Covington, Stewart, Caddigan, Nohe.

I know and like them all. I would hope that they could work something out and avoid a primary or convention fight for the nomination for County Chairman.

 

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