Wednesday, October 19, 2005

Ask the Chairman

Our first ask the Chairman Segment! Question:"What impact do you feel Northern Virginia will have on the outcome of the November Election?" Chairman Connaughton: I'm not sure that my predictions are any better than the next persons on this, but my feeling is that unless something dramatic occurs in the next three weeks, Northern Virginia will likely not be the decisive vote for the statewide candidates in this election cycle. The basic problem is that even though it is the most populous region in the Commonwealth, Northern Virginians usually do not vote in numbers that exceed (or even reflect) their percentage of the overall statewide electorate. Consequently, while the region produces large numbers of voters, it usually does not produce the decisive vote. This is good news for the Republican ticket because Northern Virginia is trending Democrat. I believe that this election will be decided by the numbers and margins for the respective tickets in Central Virginia and Hampton Roads. The real question is: when will Northern Virginia become the electoral colossus its population and economy shouts it should be? On one hand, it can occur slowly as the region’s overall population numbers move ever upward until the sheer numbers of voters make the region the decisive vote in statewide elections. Given current and projected population growth in Northern Virginia, this is a very likely scenario. On the other hand, the region can become the decisive vote in a shorter timeframe or a particular election if the voters can be motivated to vote in larger numbers than usual due to a particular issue or candidate, or combination thereof. I simply do not see this happening in this election. Thanks again Chairman. Send questions to conservative2054@hotmail.com

21 Comments:

At 10/18/2005 11:02:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

I feel as though that is thorough analysis.

If NOVA does come out hard, I fear the Democrats could clean up in Fairfax, and move the blueness further out into the suburbs.

The Tidewater area might be a good deciding block this year, because it is Bob McDonnell's strong ground. His supporters are very loyal, and his support runs deep in this area.

 
At 10/18/2005 11:04:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The only way northern virginia comes out in the numbers they should, is if a fellow northern virginian is on the ticket.

not a crazy leftie like leslie, but a candidate who genuinely cares for the interests of those in northern virginia.

 
At 10/18/2005 11:14:00 PM, Anonymous NoVA Scout said...

We seem to be in an interesting period in this election. The polls are starting to show some Kaine strength (all this is less than seismic and all within the MOE). I'm getting a little concerned that NoVA may indeed be bestirring itself and it's not working to JK's advantage. I know Connaughton and others have been working hard to keep the blue tinge from spreading out of Fairfax, but his prediction that Northern Virginia will not throw its weight around this cycle may be wrong. Republicans chose to run a Richmond insider slate this time around. This may be the last time they have the luxury of doing that. I think the way to gain Northern Virginia's attention is to run a candidate who, if not from this region, at least is not part of the inner Richmond workings and who can fairly take Richmond to task for malfeasance on issues that are important to Northern Virginia.

 
At 10/18/2005 11:40:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I disagree NOVA scout. The way things in NOVA are going, we will not have a huge turn out. No state-wide candidate has made anyone in NOVA excited, and ouside of Fairfax, there are not many targeted Delegate races in Loudoun or Prince William.

Fairfax turnout might be increased because of all of the d2d operations , but overall NOVA will not turn out.

 
At 10/19/2005 09:43:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great. Fairfax is the only place where Dems live. Other than Arlington/Alex, where you have huge pockets of angry dems who hate Bush and are ready for blood.

 
At 10/19/2005 10:59:00 AM, Blogger neocon22 said...

will kilgore turn out voters for the down-ticket candidates, or vice versa?

 
At 10/19/2005 11:04:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't know, who is running?

 
At 10/19/2005 11:58:00 AM, Blogger neocon22 said...

will kilgore help turn out party loyals that will help out delgates or will voters go to the polls for their delegates?

 
At 10/19/2005 01:14:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

I don't feel a sense of thrill for the downticket candidates.

Jerry Kilgore is the only one that has been out there alot on media, and in the papers, so I feel he will carry Bolling.

From past elections, I don't know what Jerry's impact will be on the AG's race, but with Creigh Deeds in the mix, NOVA could definetly go his way.

 
At 10/19/2005 01:43:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Correct Sean!

I fear that in Fairfax we could have a wipeout of our moderate-suburban delegates(well reese is already out), and see many conservative's begin to taper off too.

 
At 10/19/2005 09:01:00 PM, Blogger Steven said...

Hey Sean! Great mini-pep talk at the Sorensen event -- It was good seeing you again.

Q. Are you going to run for the Virginia State Senate?

~ the blue dog ;-)

 
At 10/19/2005 10:19:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Common Blue Dog!
He'd have to take on Bob Fitzsimmonds in the primary. Bob has already publically stated he wants to run again. We all know he has a GREAT chance of beating colgan THIS TIME!

Heck, he should skip it, and fun straight for governor.
'09= Fitzsimmonds, Stirrup, and Young.

 
At 10/19/2005 10:47:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sean Connaughton 2009!!!!!!

 
At 10/20/2005 08:20:00 AM, Blogger Mitch Cumstein said...

"Heck, he should skip it, and fun straight for governor.
'09= Fitzsimmonds, Stirrup, and Young."

Thanks, Anon. Now I have to clean up all of the coffee I just spit all over my monitor!

 
At 10/20/2005 10:40:00 AM, Blogger James Young said...

Anon 10:19 --- Aside from the fact that I have no further interest in elective office, Virginia's Constitution requires that a candidate for Attorney General be a member of the Virginia Bar for at least five years. I am not, nor have I ever been, a member of the Virginia Bar.

 
At 10/20/2005 02:03:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

ah..darn.

 
At 10/20/2005 03:08:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Let's find out where Young is admitted to practice law and run him for AG there -- I'll do anything to get him to move out of Virginia!

 
At 10/20/2005 03:40:00 PM, Blogger MR JMS said...

Ha.

 
At 10/20/2005 10:21:00 PM, Anonymous NOVA Scout said...

If Jim Young's not running for AG in 2009, then I will counter him noble gesture for noble gesture and not run for President in 2008.

 
At 10/21/2005 10:44:00 AM, Blogger James Young said...

Yeah, Anon 3:08 ... anything but demonstrate courage by attaching your name to your insults.

 
At 10/23/2005 12:08:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Less "conservative" Republicans have had it with the corruption of the Bush-Cheney Disaster Team. Time to get on board the right train or get left behind. The only option for November is Tim Kaine and the Democrats statewide.

 

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