Sunday, October 30, 2005

Fairfax County Chairman

With one week left in this race determining the make up of Virginia politics, leaders in Fairfax are already beginning to talk about what will happen one and two years down the road. Although many believe the current Fairfax Chairman Gerry Connolly to be unbeatable, I have recently heard of some great prospective candidates for the job. Sully Supervisor Michael Frey brings to the table an entire Magisterial District, years of experience on the board, a close relationship with Congressman Davis and Chairman Connaughton(which equals money), and a rather moderate, yet conservative appealing voting record. I have heard from many people that although Frey is itching for the job, that he does not wish to take on Connolly. Jack Herrity has already thrown his hat into the ring to Republicans, and plans on running yet again for the Chairman position. He seems to be genuine in his plans , but as with the last Herrity/Bryckner primary I doubt he would ever succeed in clinching the nomination. State-Senator , and wife of former Chairman Tom Davis, Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis would be an excellent candidate as well, and seems to be open to the idea. Mrs.Davis has previously shown interest in running for a County-level position, when she ran for Supervisor against Connolly before. A rematch with Congressman Davis' support could be sweet. Although-is Chairman a step down? and what about Congress or Lieutenant Governor?

38 Comments:

At 10/30/2005 09:22:00 PM, Blogger Bwana said...

Interesting question about Jean Marie. Congress is temporarily out of the question, of course, as her husband is blocking her way. (assuming they share a legal address). I would think that state senator is a fine jumping off point for a statewide race (i.e., see Bolling, Deeds, Earley, Wilder, etc.)

This is taking a real leap of faith, but if JMD is really thinking about the Fairfax chariman's seat, she may be wanting to take a shot straight for the GOP nomination for governor (in 2009 or 2013). Keep in mind that JMD did not win a crushing senate victory in 2003...

Just thinking on the fly here...

Extreme scenario A: Democrats sweep in nov 2005. No putative GOP nominees in sight. What would be better starting point for JMD than having won the chief exec position of the largest locality in Virgina?

Extreme scenario B: GOP sweep in Nov 2005. McDonnell and Bolling spend four years jockeying for the 2009 nomination (a la Hager and Earley in 2001). Having won the FFx chairmanship in 2007, JMD can either run for Lt. Gov with the credentials of having won in her delegate, senatorial, and Chairman races, OR can offer herself for the big nomination if neither Bolling nor McConnell make a big impression on the party faithful.

On top of all this is that Tom Davis has shown he can raise money by the barrel for a federal election. Imagine what he could do in virginia with the limits off?

Of course, all the advantages of this course hinge on one thing: Does JMD really think she has a better chance of bearing Gerry Connally in 2007 than in holding her senate seat?

 
At 10/30/2005 09:40:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

Well..I have heard her Senate Seat might be easier to hold than orginially thought.

Chap Peterson who ran to the left in the primary for Lt.Gov has said he is interested now in settling with him family and making some money. I do not see him as making a charge against her for State Senate.

Steve Shannon, who bows at the feet to Congressman Davis, would not be stupid enough to run against the Congressmans money. His name id is too low district wide, she would crush him outside of their overlapping areas.

Lt.Gov would be an interesting jumping point, but why do that, and then have a change to be Governor/Congress at the same time. I see it as one path or the other.
Federal/State.

Eitherway, she runs into problems even in her own sect of the party.What about Hugo? What about Connaughton?What about Saxman?

There's no doubt with her ambition, backing, and personality that Senator Devolites-Davis will go somewhere.

 
At 10/30/2005 09:53:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

An argument can be made that the post of Chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, if handled properly, is the highest elected office in the Commonwealth. Population of more than 1,000,000, tremendous economic vitality etc. Why would anyone rather be LG or a term limited G of Virginia?

 
At 10/30/2005 10:03:00 PM, Anonymous tooconservative said...

If someone ever wanted to go National-or even state-wide, especially as a Republican, being Chairman of a "Northern" county is not favorable to the downstate conservatives.

Chairman of Fairfax is not a launching point for a Senate bid.

 
At 10/31/2005 12:31:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sorry guys, Mike Frey is not the answer. He does not stand up to the status-quo on the board.

He may even have trouble in his own district if he does not stop making stupid mistakes. Recently he ignored an issue about zoning problems that were allowing the building of adult video stores in close proximity to schools based on a loophole. It was only after much public outcry that he even addressed the issue.

 
At 10/31/2005 12:50:00 AM, Blogger MR JMS said...

Buzz Hawley for Chairman!

 
At 10/31/2005 01:31:00 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I think there are a lot of people praying in both parties that the GOP find a strong candidate here. Connolly has managed to offend almost every single engaged citizen of Fairfax, Republican or Democrat, with the exception of his amazing funders. FAIRFAX IS NOT FOR SALE!!!!

I think JeanneMarie would be a 10+ type candidate, and the idea of her running to save us from Gerry would be something I could support with total enthusiasm.

 
At 10/31/2005 09:43:00 AM, Blogger Bwana said...

No one said it would be easy, as your observation about possible competitors shows. I imagine JMD will take whatever course offers her the widest array of options.

I doubt that she and Connaughton will lock heads, as they would cut each other too much in NoVA to be successful. A d'accord amiable would be reached. There is also the fact that until Tim Kaine won the democratic nod in 2001 I do not know of anyone able to make the leap from directly a municipal office to the statewide stage. Even Dick Davis in 1981 had to be state democratic chair to additionally burnish his service as Mayor of Portsmouth.

However, as noted above if you in win the Ffax Chairmanship you head a jurisdiction of over a million residents. It may be that unless you have to take an extremely moderate to liberal position on social issues to win up here you could still be a viable candidate for the GOP nod.

The Chap Peterson scenario confirms what I have suspected...there are a large number of office holders in fairfax who are waiting for the chance to run for the 11th district seat, but don't want to take on Davis. I would put Shannon and Peterson in that category....

It is true that Va politicians have typically been perceived as chosing the state or federal path, the exception being someone who has served as governor going onto the house (Tuck) or senate (Robb and Allen). However, if memory serves in the last thirty years or so we have had several folks who went to the H/Rep from the Va statehouse (including but not limited to Bob Daniels, Norm sisisky, Randy Forbes, Stan Parris, Virgil Goode, Ken Robinson, Bobby Scott, et. al.) So while a dichotomy exists, it is not the almost absolute wall that existed fifty years ago...and again being head of a jurisdiction with over a million residents has to be a reasonable foundation for a wider candidacy.

I find it somewhat ironic that on differing blogs there is talk of (a) JMD leaving the senate to run for FFax chair, and (b) Chmn Sean leaving the PWCo chair to run for the Senate...sugesting that there are many ideas about how best to position oneself for a statewide race.

However, regardless of office, experience has shown that the proven road to success in securing a statewide nomination is to start working at least two years in advance. Katzen started early and cut off Forbes and Bolling; Bolling started early and cut off Connaughton...who will be first out of the blocks for 2009?

 
At 10/31/2005 10:01:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Cuccinelli

 
At 10/31/2005 10:24:00 AM, Blogger too conservative said...

Cuccinelli?

Even if he manages to stay around against the Sheriff of Fairfax next go around, he would never get the Chairmanship position.

I believe even the party loyalists in Fairfax County would vote for Frey/Devolites-Davis over him.

 
At 10/31/2005 11:26:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sorry, didn't intend that as an announcement for chairman. Intended as an announcement for statewide in 2009.

Stan the Sherriff is running against Cuccinelli for his dad's old seat? That's great! Cuccinelli will win that one. Barry is as corrupt as Chairman Gerry!

 
At 10/31/2005 12:53:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yikes, I don't like your options very much at all.

Mrs. Davis isn't completely bad, but she will have to actually campaign this time- unlike during her last Senate run, where she barely won in a district that was specifically carved out for her.

Fry seems to support smut-shops, so I can't say I'd ever support him, and Herrity is a nice guy, he just seems too old.

 
At 10/31/2005 02:55:00 PM, Anonymous davis4president said...

I don't think a race against Berry would be easy for Ken.

-Carved out for her!? What are you talking about? Both of the Davis' have non-jerrymandered districts

 
At 10/31/2005 03:16:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

She was carved a very Republican leaning district, during the last re-districting.

 
At 10/31/2005 03:21:00 PM, Blogger Bwana said...

D4P is right on the money. Let's consider the following:

a) in 2003, after winning the special election and standing in the forefront of the NO vote on the tax referendum, KC got 53% of the vote as an incumbent against a less than stellar democratic opponent.
b) His hand picked candidate in 2003 in the 35th district was flamed by Steve Shannon.
c) The democrats are running strong campaigns in delegate districts (like 37th and 41st) that share turf with his 37th Senate district.

Taken as a whole it suggests that Senator Ken can win reelection, but it will not be a cake walk.

 
At 10/31/2005 03:51:00 PM, Anonymous davis4president said...

His approval ratings in his district have fallen well below 50%.

I do not believe he will win another race.

I believe within the next 2 cycles we see the end of Cuccinelli and O'Brien

 
At 10/31/2005 04:44:00 PM, Blogger MR JMS said...

Doubt O'Brien but can see Cuccinelli.

Istill say Buzz Hawley. Maybe even David Hunt.

 
At 10/31/2005 07:55:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

mr jms...
buzz hawley has baggage, you and I both know that.

Dave Hunt wouldn't be bad, but his name id is to low.

 
At 11/01/2005 11:27:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What a shock. Tom Davis supporters want to see the end of conservatives like Cuccinelli and O'Brian!

This just proves how close to the LEFT Davis and his camp have become.

 
At 11/01/2005 11:39:00 AM, Anonymous davis4president said...

What a shock.
Some Bolling supporter taking things I say, and making up lies with them.

I said "I believe we see the end of Cuccinelli and O'Brin" not "What must I do to help defeat Cuccinelli and O'Brien"

I personally like Mr.Cuccinelli. I find him ineffective as a Senator, but my social views fall in line with his.

 
At 11/01/2005 11:56:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

First off, I would *love* to see proof that Cuccinelli's approval ratings have fallen below 50% in his district. I am sure that Senator Cuccinelli would be interested in seeing that poll as well....

I would also like to note that in 2003, when Cuccinelli received 53% of the vote, he was Mark Warner's NUMBER ONE target to take out that year. Mark Warner and his cronies poured over a half million dollars into the 37th Senate District, and yet again, Warner received ANOTHER black eye from Cuccinelli. I might also add that 2003 was a less than stellar year for Republicans in Fairfax County - Connolly won the chairmanship (and the Republican challengers were embarrasingly CRUSHED). I would say that garnering 53% while being buried under a half million dollars is a true testament to the spirit and determination of the Cuccinelli campaign. Everytime Cuccinelli has gone up against Mark Warner -- Cuccinelli WINS.

Also, though the difference may be small, I did want to point out that the "ever-popular" Jeannemarie captured her senate seat in 2003 by a smaller percentage than did Senator Cuccinelli. She was challenged by a little known Democrat that received virtually no assistance from the Dems in Richmond. Warner pretty much ignored that seat and had his eyes on Cuccinelli.

Look for Chap Peterson to run against Jeannemarie in 2007. Connolly is eyeing Davis's congressional seat (look for that to be vacated in 2008).

 
At 11/01/2005 02:29:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

Yes she did, but her district is moderate just like her. Cuccinelli's has been moderate, and through great campaigning he has been able to hold onto it.

I have heard from a few people that Chap does not plan on running against Jeannemarie. The logic has been, he gets out of politics now for a little, and then if Mason wins, he will serve one or two terms, retire, and Chap is back in.

Cuccinelli is a good conservative, but his district has simply changed underneath him, as he has gone more and more to the right.

I am not bashing him, it just makes sense that he will be in trouble soon.

 
At 11/01/2005 02:56:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

But if Jeannemarie's district is more moderate "like her", than why didn't she win by more than 53% either?

 
At 11/01/2005 04:04:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I disagree on your Cuccinelli assessments.

He is as "right" as he has always been, no more, no less. He has done everything he promised his constituency that he would attempt to do and has remained true to his convictions. He fights in the legislature for those things that he believes are best for the community and even works across the aisle when it makes sense to do so (example: the sales tax referendum fight). I fail to see how any of his efforts while a Senator can result in the conclusion that he is an "ineffective Senator".

I also don't see anything that Stan the Sherriff brings to the table that will enable him to beat Cuccinelli. While the demographics in his district may have changed some, I find it unlikely that cuccinelli will succomme to him in a general, mainly because of the kind of good campaigner he is. He will not give Republican voters reason to abandon him for a Democrat. The only way that I think Cuccinelli loses is possibly in a intra-party challenge. However, he has survived this easily in the past and I doubt it will be tried this time.

 
At 11/01/2005 04:22:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The sales tax referendum fight was before he was in office, and was hardly a partisan affair in the first place. I am not sure this really should be counted as an example of a legislator "working across the aisle".

Many seem to be unaware of Senator Cuccinelli's accomplishments during his four years in the Virginia Senate...something concrete and legislative that he made happen that benefits the 37th. Perhaps that is why some perceive him as "ineffective"

 
At 11/01/2005 04:24:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The main difficulty for Ken is how Tom Davis keeps bothering the man with mindless left-leaning opponents in the primary (who never win). Does Tom always have to encourage his liberal friends to run for office in the 37th? Does he hate conservatives THAT much?

 
At 11/01/2005 04:30:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

anonymous 4:22 ... WRONG ... the tax referendum fight was during the November 2002 GENERAL election, Senator Cuccinelli was sworn into office in August of 2002. He won a special election that summer prior to the sales tax campaign.

I will pull up lots of legislation later that he submitted or helped to push through that affects voters in the 37th, but for starters I think it's fair to say that the half cent sales tax hike that was on the ballot in 2002 would have affected voters in the 37th. He led the campaign that KILLED the referendum. In case you missed it, the Washington Post referred to Senator Cuccinelli's special election as a "referendum on the referendum". One of his main messages in the campaign was that he OPPOSED the referendum -- he beat a sitting school board member (Cathy Belter) by 10 points in that election.

 
At 11/01/2005 04:34:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

And lastly Anon 4:22, if you want to talk about working across the aisle, why don't we talk about all the environmentalists that joined Senator Cuccinelli in his fight against the tax referendum? Ever heard of The Sierra Club or The Piedmont Environmental Council? I promise you - they don't typically join forces with the "right wingers".

 
At 11/01/2005 04:48:00 PM, Anonymous davis4president said...

Sadly anonymous'...it is how candidates that are percieved, and he is percieved ultra-right.

He is associated with people such as Dick Black, whom don't resonate well with Fairfax voters.

I believe Davis gave Ken thousands of dollars, just to have Cuccinelli continually bad mouth him all over Virginia, and not support Davis' candidates.

 
At 11/01/2005 05:04:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dick Black and Ken Cuccinelli unabashedly stand up for family values -- anyone who thinks that is bad is sorely out of touch themselves.

 
At 11/01/2005 05:17:00 PM, Anonymous davis4president said...

People with family values don't lie, and backstab their own party

 
At 11/01/2005 05:19:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

you mean like Tom Davis? I agree!

 
At 11/01/2005 05:24:00 PM, Anonymous davis4president said...

Congressman Davis has donated his money to conservative candidates, some he knew he would never win(Bryckner).

He has given money to Black, to Cuccinelli, to O'Brien, and in return these men work against him.

When he is upset with someone, they know it, he will primary them or publically be pissed off.

These others go behind his back, and talk negatively around the state about the man that gets them elected.

 
At 11/01/2005 06:15:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I haven't seen any proof of your allegation that all of these guys are out to get Davis, but it is helpful that you admit how Tom Davis actively works against sitting Conservatives.

Not surprising, but helpful.

 
At 11/01/2005 09:34:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Carhy Belter was not a school board member. She was a PTA president. Big difference.

 
At 11/01/2005 09:59:00 PM, Anonymous GainesvilleDude said...

This battle of Anon's is a hoot! Keep it up, girls!

Anon 4:22-learn to read a calendar.

The other Anon-you know, "Anon for Cucinnelli"-goes on all the time about the tax referendum, and yet his answer stops at the referendum in 2002. After that...nothing!

No legislation that benefits his district. No examples of working across the aisle in the General Assembly.

Being on the same side of a fight as the Sierra Club is not the same thing as working with them. Even your words suggest they were working toward a mutual goal, and not with SenKen.

senKen led the effort to kill the referendum? I guess if he wants to keep his percentages up he needs to kick up another referendum.

Shoot, I think Anon for Cucinelli should take Ineffective as a compliment! AOC needs to go home and look up this alleged legislation while drooling over a photo of SenKen.

Anon 422, you should probably leave this fight to AOC above. You are obviously too genteel for this arena. I remind you of the old farmer's saying "Never get in a fight with a pig. You both get dirty, and the pig likes it!"

 
At 11/01/2005 10:21:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interesting take gainesville dude...

 
At 11/02/2005 12:36:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous 9:34 - Cathy Belter was and IS a school board member in Fairfax County. She represents the Springfield Magisterial District ... do your homework.

 

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