Monday, November 14, 2005

2009 talk has already begun....

Poli has started the discussion on 2009 already. Seems a tad bit premature since this election is not even over yet. But, lets disthrow it out there. Gov- This will be Bob McDonnell. If he loses the recount than it will be Bill Bolling. I expect Gilmore to test the waters, but he will soon find he isn't as popular as he once had been. If both Bob and Bill make a run we will see a nasty convention. Yes, convention... Do not expect another primary anytime soon folks. So, our early pick(as stated up top)-- Bob McDonnell. LG- Too many names. If you don't have a JD and want to be Gov some day this is where you start. Everyone is floating their name on this one and it is ridiculious. Saxman, Newman, Hugo, Devolites-Davis, Martin, O'Brien, on and on and on. This will be an interesting little battle for the nod and I expect the filed to be down to two people by convention. My early pick-- Chris Saxman of Augusta. AG- Again, lots of interest. Connaughton is rumored to be considering AG(if not Gov), but won't make a stab at LG again(it is an insignificant position). My early money is on all statewide candidates seeking the endorsement of CONGRESSMAN Connaughton after he replaces Davis in 2008. Other players include Harris, Bell, McDougle, Kilgore(Terry), and Baril. I will say now that Bell will not run if Harris does. McDougle will have a tough time running early with a 2007 Senate re-election. The early money here is on Harris. If he opts to run for statewide office I will give him the early edge over any other candidate. So, early pick-- Paul Harris of Charlottesville(Manassas). So here ya go folks. Mr JMS' early picks for 2009 that are more likely to be wrong than right... Governor- Bob McDonnell Lt Governor- Chris Saxman Attorney General- Paul Harris Slogan: "Let's Bring Virginia Back!"

19 Comments:

At 11/14/2005 10:39:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"My early money is on all statewide candidates seeking the endorsement of CONGRESSMAN Connaughton after he replaces Davis in 2008"

Nothing like teeing yourself up for abuse on a Monday, I believe I see Mr. Young in the on-deck circle.

 
At 11/14/2005 10:42:00 AM, Blogger MR JMS said...

Bring it on!

 
At 11/14/2005 10:47:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Connaughton doesn't live in the Tom Davis district, his rep is Joann Davis.

 
At 11/14/2005 10:57:00 AM, Blogger MR JMS said...

Again, Constitutional lesson for all... You DO NOT need to live in a district to run for it nor do you really need to even live in it to represent that district. Congressional districts are a relatively newer concept in our nations on going history of political change. No where is the district mentality required by the constitution.

 
At 11/14/2005 12:29:00 PM, Blogger James Young said...

Yes, but if Chairman Sean runs for Mr. Davis' seat, rather than Mrs. Davis, he invites attacks that he can do without, and which would probably be sufficient to sink his candidacy, assuming for the sake of argument that he could win the nomination.

 
At 11/14/2005 01:14:00 PM, Blogger Hirons said...

Even if residency were a legal issue. Getting into the district is only a condo rent payment away.

Although I'm not sure what Jim means in the first part of the statement above, I agree that he'd have a tough nomination battle. If he were to win the nomination he'd likely be headed to Capitol Hill.

JY - What attacks would he invite (as the nominee- post primary/convetion) that would "sink" his candidacy?

 
At 11/14/2005 01:42:00 PM, Blogger James Young said...

I've always believed it to be unwise for a candidate to move into a district simply to run for office (it's probably more offensive to move into a state to do so, a la Hitlary). You'll recall that one of the many attacks upon Scott Lingamfelter was the fact that he moved into his district. In a tight race, that would probably be enough to defeat a candidate. I will concede that it's probably less of a problem in an area like this, with rather homogenous districts.

 
At 11/14/2005 01:53:00 PM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

The only thing is that Connaughton lived in the 11th District until 2001 when he was redistricted into the 1st CD. If he moves back into the 11th, he would still have lived in the 11th longer than he had lived in the 1st.

I made a similar comment over on Commonwealth Conservative about Connaughton running for Congress in '08 before I even saw it over here.

My picks for '09:

Gov. - Bob McDonnell (assuming his lead holds this year)
Lt. Gov. - Kate Obenshain-Griffin
A.G. - Chad Dotson

That's some geographic diversity for you. Chad - Southwest; Kate - Northwest / Quasi-NOVA; Bob - VA Beach / NOVA Hometown.

 
At 11/14/2005 01:55:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I believe Connaughton's house was in the 11th District for ten years then the lines shifted in 2000. I think people will forgive him -- especially since the lines will shift again in 2010.

 
At 11/14/2005 01:57:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

That's true anon.

But they can't go further South, or Tom will be out(not that it would matter).

I disagree Mr. JMS

AG goes to Baril.
If Connaughton doesnt want Lt.Gov, it goes to Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis.

 
At 11/14/2005 02:13:00 PM, Blogger MR JMS said...

Ya'll are on hypnotic drugs or something.

Obenshain-Griffin was Chair during a big defeat. She is doing a fair job at RPV but she is NOT her father.

Devolites-Davis dies in a convention. I actually feel bad for her if she runs because the Fitzhugh mafia will splash her daughters picture everywhere and question the Senators integrity for past marraige issues.

Dotson- Love the guy, but doubt he can make a move. I would suggest he run for the HOD or Senate. Or, get out there in 2009 and hope for Sec of Public Safety as many speculated he would get if Kilgore won.

Baril- Won't happen. If Harris wants to be AG and makes his intentions known soon anyone would be foolish to try and stop that train from running into the convention and cleaning house on the first ballot.

 
At 11/14/2005 03:41:00 PM, Blogger Bwana said...

Is it suddenly a given that the GOP will have a convention in 2009? I thought the expense of the process was enough reason to move away from it. Besides, does anyone really think that there will be any less intra-party slashing in a convention than in a primary?

 
At 11/14/2005 04:10:00 PM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

I think that the thought process with a convention is that it keeps the mudslinging within the family rather than exposing the general public to it the way a primary can.

 
At 11/14/2005 04:33:00 PM, Blogger Not Not Jay Hughes said...

Jim--I agree with you that the theoretical concept of a convention is that it keeps the dirty laundry in house.....but with robust media coverage it all gets display for all to see anyway.....

 
At 11/14/2005 11:12:00 PM, Anonymous NOVA Scout said...

Think carefully about the 11th, friends. If TD quits, this will be a very difficult seat to retain, especially if Connelly runs. I think even Connaughton would have a tough time, but I can't think of anyone who could even come close to Sean in making it a fight (BTW, Mr. JMS is right that the Constitution doesn't require that one live in the district. Nonetheless, it would work against any candidate not to live in the district. Just for the record, I completely agree with James Young's 1342 comment on this. It's worth noting when such a rare event happens). But we really don't know what Tom Davis's plans are. The trial balloon a couple of months ago just had the effect of identifying Tim Hugo and Jay O'Brien as lusting for the job, but not having enough sense to refrain from publicly drooling over the prospect of Tom's departure. If Tom and others have a real commitment to retaining the seat, he, Allen and Warner need to very clearly flag their sentiment as to who they feel is the best GOP candidate at the time Tom makes his announcement and do all they can to pour cold water on any circular firing squad activities in a primary.

RE 2009 primary v. convention, I predict that the Bolling people will do all in their power to keep it a convention. They can control that. Of course, unless the Dems are considerate enough to run Leslie Byrne again, that dooms us to a repeat of this year, but with even a higher margin of defeat.

 
At 11/15/2005 12:57:00 AM, Blogger too conservative said...

Nova scout..

You're well informed, who are you?

 
At 11/15/2005 09:10:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I heard that TD is sort of pissed off at Sean right now for some reason, but he also knows that Sean is the only candidate who can hold his seat for the GOP.

 
At 11/15/2005 10:04:00 AM, Anonymous NoVA Scout said...

TC: I can also see into the future. Unless some things change, it is not a pretty sight.

 
At 11/15/2005 11:17:00 AM, Blogger too conservative said...

TD pissed at Sean?

Wrong information anon.

 

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