Wednesday, November 30, 2005

Bill Mims Special

Although nothing is certain, is Bob McDonnell wins the recount, and Senator Bill Mims takes a position as Deputy Attorney General, there would be a scramble for his seat. NLS did a little post on a Mims open seat , but I wanted to go further into who the likely candidates would be. The Delegate pool looks unlikely as I've heard Tom Rust, Joe May , and Tim Hugo live outside of the district. Conservative Supervisors Eugene Delgaudio, and Steve Snow seem poised to run in Loudoun. Although Delegate Dick Black lost , he seems to wield enough power to help get his son in law Mick Staton elected, that is..if he decides not to run himself. On the Fairfax side, Chris Craddock seems to be the only solid Republican with a name who lives in Mims District. "Independent" Scott York from Loudoun would be a fairly solid choice for the Democrats, as Chairman of the entire Board of Supervisors. To quell any Gary Reese rumors, he lives in Devolites-Davis' district. Although the seat voted overwhelmingly for Leslie Byrne, Republicans should be able to hold it, but the number game tells us the strongest candidate from either side would not come from Fairfax, but Loudoun.


At 11/30/2005 04:20:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

we need a conservative in there=CHRIS CRADDOCK!

At 11/30/2005 04:21:00 PM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

The Loudoun supervisor districts wholely within this district are:

Broad Run - Lori Waters-R
Dulles - Stephen Snow-R
Potomac - Bruce Tulloch-R
Sterling - Eugene Delgadio-R
Sugarland Run - Mick Staton-R

with bits of the other three appearing to be within it as well:

Blue Ridge - Jim Burton-I
Catoctin - Sally Kurtz-D
Leesburg - Jim Clem-R

I'd tend to look at the 5 supervisors completely within the district as potential candidates. I know Mick (YRs) and Lori (RNC 2004 VA Delegation) and first heard about Eugene from CR friends (way up in New England no less) 15 years ago. I can't say I know anything about Snow or Tulloch, though.

Don't count Waters out here. She has excellent conservative movement connections at the national level who would come through for her the way that Jeff Frederick used his and his wife Amy's ties to land him in the House.

At 11/30/2005 04:28:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

Staton would have the Black base to work off of, which would turn out in droves in a primary.

At 11/30/2005 06:10:00 PM, Blogger MR JMS said...

Craddock and Black would both be bad calls. I think Delgado would be as well.

Snow would be decent.

Staton would be ok as well.

I would throw another one out there though. What about Randy Minchew?

At 11/30/2005 07:38:00 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said...

I see no reason to run Black or Craddock since they just lost.
Perhaps they can run again for their seats or something in 2 years, but obviously people in the district are not happy with them.
By the way Vince, are you coming to the advance?

At 11/30/2005 07:58:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

Yup I am leaving Fairfax around 12 on Friday, so I plan on being down there by 4.

At 11/30/2005 09:14:00 PM, Anonymous GOP Phantom said...

Heard that Conservative Gary Clemens LC Clerk might be the right fit for the district.

At 11/30/2005 10:08:00 PM, Anonymous NOVA Scout said...

Delgadio sure would be hilarious. I think a little laughter would improve the climate around here immensely. It might be polite not to speculate until we know exactly what the current Senator has in mind.

At 12/01/2005 09:52:00 AM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

I understand that back in the '80s Delgadio used to do conservative street theater mocking Ted Kennedy. I think that was back in his YAF days.

At 12/01/2005 03:43:00 PM, Blogger said...

A meeting of the Black-Staton Family Council was held last night and the decision was made that son-in-law Mick Staton should replace Bill Mims. Boy, talk about chutzpah! Who do they think they are... the Kennedy's of Massachusetts?

Music to our ears is the fact that our favorite professional bigot, Eugene Delgaudio, is lending his endorsement to Staton, aka Black-Lite. And wow! Here's a wonderful opportunity to again beat the Black contigent but with this time a REPUBLICAN candidate.

Because what the Black family clan doesn't seem to understand is that Dick Black, the kingmaker, is dead! That Black is now himself poison. And already we know of 1 or 2 good moderate Republicans ready to step up, win and carry on splendidly where Bill Mims' left off.

At 12/04/2005 01:30:00 PM, Anonymous LoudounCentristConservative said...

OK, the dust has finally settled. Between information learned from the RPV Advance at the Homestead, Kaine's appearance at the Leesburg Airport, and from attendees at a meeting of the McDonnell for AG Committee in Richmond, here's the latest:

1) Sugarland Run District Supervisor Mick Staton and not his father-in-law Dick Black will seek the Republican nomination for the 33rd. Despite the fact that Mims has not even unequivocably stated that we would give up his seat, the Black-Staton Family has their candidate and it is Mick. Mims is strongly disliked by the Black-Staton Family for his centrist views and would have been challenged anyway by the Loudoun's First UberConservative Family in 2007 anyway. Staton has lined up a lot of endorsements courtesy of Dick Black's telephone work and has the support of Sterling District Supervisor Eugene Delgaudio and a few others on Loudoun's pro-developer Republican Board of Supervisors.

2)Loudoun GOP Chairman Minchew is also clearly in the running and would be a very strong Republican candidate, but is being way too deferential to his longtime friend Senator Bill Mims and has not formally declared, formed his exploratory committee, sought out any endorsements, etc. Come on, Randy; This is politics! Forget the political ethics and nice guy stuff and go for it.

3)The Democrats have a very weak bench in the 33rd and would first try to lure Independent Board Chairman Scott York to accept the Democratic nomination. If that doesn't work, the Dems would try to recruit former Democratic Board member Chuck Harris (who lost to Republican Lori Waters in 2003) or former Democratic candidate Jim Kelly (who lost to Republican Delegate Tom Rust in 2003).

4)While a Minchew-Herring race for the Joe May District seat would be a marquee contest between the best that both parties have to offer, it will not happen as Delegate Joe May will not be leaving his House seat anytime soon. May has seniority, clout, the chairmanship of the Science and Technology Committee and vice-chairmanship of the Transportation Committee, and can write his own ticket anywhere on Capitol Hill.

5)McDonnell and Mims will stay out of the Republican nominating event, but everyone knows where their hearts are.


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