Monday, November 07, 2005

Last Thoughts on the NOVA races.

I have a few last minute thoughts on the Delegate and state-wide races and have complied them below. The sad part is, many of the entrenched Republicans in the outer suburbs have really lost their footing lately. In Loudoun, the voters I have spoken to, even Republicans have gotten over Delegate Dick Black, and I believe this will go to moderate Poisson. Marshall will hold onto his seat against Roemmelt. Frederick , who is barely up against Barg , is going to have to depend alot on the way the Governors mansion goes. I believe Frederick will win. Michael Golden has worked a hard fought race, but in the end I feel Marsden beats him, the district is just to moderate. Steve Shannon handedly defeats Jim Hyland. John Mason has worked hard, but with the problems on the right, Bulovas name id, and a Kaine Fairfax victory , I believe this will go to Bulova. Vivian Watts handedly defeats Michael Meunier. I believe one of the miracle campaigns this year has been the tireless work of Ron Grignol in his race to defeat Mark Sickles. In the end though, his district is just to liberal. Sickles wins. Albo squeaks by against Tax-heiser. In the 67th, Craddock will also squeak by a victory against Chuck Caputo. The determining factor in this race will be the often forgotten Chuck Eby. What I believe to be the ironic thing about the Governors race is the low % by Russ Potts. Although Potts has run a horrible campaign, and has been attacked by the Kilgore camp for his low-showing in the polls, that he will make the difference. Potts will be able to fulfill his goal, and swing the pendulum to Kaine. Although the Democrats seem to be leading in Virginia, and Bolling did a better job portraying Connaughton as a liberal than Byrne, this race seems remarkably close. Because I believe Kaine will win, and many of the high turn out Delegate seats , especially in Leslies NOVA home are going Dem. , I call this for Byrne. McDonnell wins handedly, and can put his legs up. He is Governor in '09.

4 Comments:

At 11/07/2005 11:33:00 PM, Blogger Mitch Cumstein said...

TC:

I think you're pretty much dead on with your analysis with two exceptions:

I hate to tell you this, because I know you have a much bigger stake in it than I do, but I think Caputo is going to beat Craddock. Chris is probably a great guy, but it sounds like he just might not be ready for prime time. Maybe in another two years.

As for the 52nd, my gut tells me that Barg will squeak this one out. The district is traditionally Dem. and I just feel that enough folks will come out for Kaine in the district to swing it her way. Either way, it'll be a close one.

No matter what happens, we need to sit down and seriously rethink the direction this party is going in after Tuesday. We made some serious mistakes in choosing candidates and in running slash-and-burn campaigns. In the long run, those things just won't fly.

 
At 11/08/2005 01:37:00 AM, Blogger too conservative said...

Mitch-
The 67th has always voted Republican.

I just can't see a victory for Democrats.

I also can see your Barg analysis, but I have been told from people down there that Frederick is out working her.

 
At 11/08/2005 08:52:00 AM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

It's not too hard to outwork Hilda.

 
At 11/08/2005 09:10:00 AM, Blogger Mitch Cumstein said...

The 52nd will be an interesting study. There's no doubt that Jeff outworked Hilda. But, as a whole, the district seems more likely to go for Kaine than Kilgore, as it went for Kerry last year.

So, does outworking your opponent overcome demographics?

 

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