Tuesday, November 08, 2005

NLS is Correct

I agree with NLS on the Deeds/McDonnell race. Minus some suburban Richmond Counties, which are barely going for McDonnell 50.8 to 49.2, Deeds still has HARD Democratic precincts in Arlington, Fairfax, Richmond City, and Norfolk which are breaking 70-30 for Deeds. I also predict Deeds wins , leaving Bill Bolling to control the Republican Party.

8 Comments:

At 11/08/2005 11:06:00 PM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

Ugh.... Could we have a LESS inspiring leader?

I'm sure that the only reason Bolling won was because Byrne was his opponent. Had they put up anyone else, we would've gotten swept.

 
At 11/08/2005 11:12:00 PM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

Yeah, I'm watching McDonnell's lead shrink below 5,000 votes right now. If we hold on here, it will be by the skin of our teeth. Too bad. McDonnell is a great candidate and I'd back him fully for Gov. in '09 if he pulls this off and runs then.

 
At 11/08/2005 11:19:00 PM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

Wait just a minute. There's only 1 precinct left in the 8th CD that hasn't come in in the AG race. What will hurt McDonnell are the 21 precincts in the 3rd CD where he's losing 2-1. But he might make up for that in the 7th CD where there are 12 in Hanover County which he is winning 70-30 and 3 others in Henrico that he is carrying 55-45.

 
At 11/08/2005 11:29:00 PM, Blogger Bwana said...

Well, if Deeds keeps up his current % in the Henrico precincts, or even runs as well as Byrne, and if the vote count in the precincts counted is applies proportionally to the precincts that have not reported, then Deed is sitting on at least a 5000 vote cushion in these precincts.

 
At 11/08/2005 11:37:00 PM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

No, McDonnell is the one with the 55-45 lead in Henrico and the 70-30 lead in Hanover. That's why I don't get Ben's math.

 
At 11/08/2005 11:38:00 PM, Blogger Bwana said...

I should note that by the same analysis applied to Hanover McDonnel has potentially a 4500 vote cushion there, so lots of things can still happen...

But ultimatley I have to wonder if both sides are laying in the tall grass trying to see how many votes they need to bring in. I mean, polls closed 4 & 1/2 hours ago!

 
At 11/08/2005 11:44:00 PM, Blogger Bwana said...

riley...McDonnell does have an overall lead in Henrico COunty, but Henrico is split between congressional districts. Take a look at this numbers in the 3rd district portion of henrico, and you see that Deeds has over 75% of the vote in the 9 of 24 precincts reporting.

 
At 11/09/2005 09:07:00 AM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

I was searching by district, not locality.

 

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