Monday, November 07, 2005

Ouch

The latest Survey USA poll is out. If you're a huge Kilgore fan, I'd suggest waiting for at least an hour after eating before viewing the results.

11 Comments:

At 11/07/2005 02:40:00 PM, Blogger MR JMS said...

After looking over the numbers some seems fishy some seems dead on.

Survey USA actually used a good proportion for NoVa vote. Up here we can account for as much as 33% of the state vote, but almost always hover in the 17-25 range. We hit around 24% in the primary

I am not sure I believe the church goer numbers. I dont see(or at least I pray we dont) lose the church goers.

We'll have to see what happens tomorrow.

 
At 11/07/2005 02:58:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

I was kind of optomistic before this.

 
At 11/07/2005 03:24:00 PM, Blogger Mitch Cumstein said...

"I am not sure I believe the church goer numbers. I dont see(or at least I pray we dont) lose the church goers."

I'm not so sure about that. Here's a personal example:

Unlike me, my wife is staunchly pro-life. Before voting in any election, she looks at each candidate's positon on abortion. She may not agree with everything that Kaine stands for, but the tenor of the race was pushing her away from Kilgore, despite the fact that he appears to be a bit closer (though not entirely) to her philosophically. So, yesterday, when she came out of church, she found a GOP-sponsored flyer on her van berating Kaine on abortion and extolling Kilgore' virtures. She went nuts. Literally. Having done exhaustive research on the candidates and the issue, she was apalled by what she considered "outright lies" about Kaine's stance on the issues. She was so angry, she staked out the 5:00 mass to see if the culprits returned. Bottom line: the flyer moved a possible Kilgore vote into the Kaine column.

The moral of the story is: if you're going to attack your opponent on an issue, do it right and do it in a positive way. If you try to go negative and stretch the truth to the folks who know and care about the issue, you'll get burned.

 
At 11/07/2005 03:24:00 PM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

Survey USA's reputation is garbage with the polling community. They use automated polling which skews it bad towards Dems. It seems that more Dem-inclined voters are willing to spend their time pushing buttons on their phones answering questions.

 
At 11/07/2005 03:25:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Be ye not faint of heart!

Take a look over at Vaconservative.com, where they find some areas of inconsistency in this poll:

http://vaconservative.com/archives/2005/11/07/campaigning-with-sen-george-allen/#comment-79405

 
At 11/07/2005 03:53:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What's this with Potts getting 7% of the non-white/black/hispanic vote? This is more than double his showing anywhere else? Looks strange to me.

 
At 11/07/2005 04:07:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mitch,

I can't imagine your wife is really that "staunchly" pro-life if she would consider voting for Kaine under any circumstances. It's patently clear he would oppose the pro-life position down the line. Kilgore would not. If she's that upset over a flyer on her car she's not that concerned about the issues.

As to the poll, it appears to me to be an outlier. I cannot imagine Kilgore is that far out in some of the categories. I agree with the analysis about Kaine neding 5+ lead in the polls to win. To this point I have not seen that with any consistency. This will come down to GOTV efforts.

 
At 11/07/2005 04:18:00 PM, Blogger James Young said...

I became very suspicious of these numbers (which I am reviewing over a burger in Portland, Maine, and have not suffered nausea yet) when I saw the "Moderate/Liberal" sampling. It is quite clear that this survey either undersampled "Liberals," or oversampled "Moderates" who were Liberals lying about their position.

I remain cautiously optimistic.

 
At 11/07/2005 04:51:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

haha..You think it oversampled Liberals because you don't agree with result. People in Virginia are sick of Jerry Kilgore's 100% negative campaign, get out of Maine and come to Virginia and see for yourself. Liberals and Conservatives want a Governor with a positive vision of Virginia. They don't ads calling Kaine Hitler.

 
At 11/07/2005 04:57:00 PM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

Ummmm.... Jim Young is from VA. He's in Maine on business. And the ad doesn't call Kaine "Hitler." That ad referenced a quote from Kaine on the death penalty from some years back where he questioned whether Hitler should have received it had he been found alive at the close of WWII.

 
At 11/07/2005 11:37:00 PM, Blogger Mitch Cumstein said...

Anon 4:07

What you don't know about my wife is, well, a lot. I will say that she is a devout Catholic and her pro-life credentials are above reproach. Thus the entire reason for my point. If Kilgore, by running such a negative campaign, can lose her on this issue, his team really needs to rethink what they're doing. Simply wagging a finger at the other guy and misrepresenting his stand on an issue doesn't mean a thing.

Now, if you wish to continue this discusion about my wife, I will gladly take it up with you in person.

 

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