Tuesday, November 08, 2005

Overall Picture...

No specific numbers out of people... But this is what we are hearing. Central VA- Turn out is rocking and rolling in Chesterfield and Henrico. GOTV program appears to be very successful for us. Tidewater- VA Beach should be picking up now as the base and shipyards let out. Norfolk has high turnout in some key Dem races and Chesapeake is not rolling out the numbers we would like. Southwest- Rockin and Rollin Valley- Huge numbers, especially the central valley. We could eclipse 65% turn out in some heavy GOP areas. NoVa- Mixed bag. Arling and Alexandria are staying home, but they tend to vote later. Western PWC also seems to not be coming out very much. Fairfax is close to eclipsing their 2001 numbers and it seems to be concentrated in the contested Delegate races (except Caputo/Craddock). I've been getting several mixed analysis(as we know the turn out game is a crpa shot). Theory 1- If Fairfax goes over 2001 numbers then we are dead in the water. We will not make up the difference in Central VA or the Valley. It will all come down to Tidewater. Theory 2- If Fairfax breaks 2001 numbers we are dead.... Nothing can be done to stop that beast. As they say in Garden of Stone, "Sometimes the bear eats you and sometimes you eat the bear." Theory 3- Fairfax falls short of 2001, as does Arlington and Alexandria. Dems make up no ground elsewhere and our GOTV efforts carry us to a 3-5 point victory.

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