Tuesday, November 22, 2005

Race for the 11th

Ben Kyber has some insite into Andrew Hurst, who has already signed up to run against Congressman Tom Davis. Hurst might have been the best the Democrats could have thrown at Davis before the November election, but with Democrats doing so well in Fairfax and Prince William, I believe they will be able to scrounge up a better candidate. Two Rematches seem possible, either a re-match of '04 with Ken Longmeyer(who swore to shave his beard if Bush won the 11th, but ended up reneging(thank you jy) on his promise), or of Leslie Byrne. Longmeyer would lose decisively, but I believe a Byrne re-match would prove difficult. She won his district with around 60% of the vote, has a high name id now around the state, and also a loyal following. With every passing year the 11th becomes more Democratic, but I do not believe Byrne could successfully knock Davis off, although she could weaken him for a Senate race. The one man who I believe has a chance of knocking off Davis, is Gerry Connolly. Connolly and Davis come from the same background as County Supervisors:Providence Supervisor(He beat Davis' wife Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis) , Mason District, and Chairman of the County. Connolly has long sought after Davis' seat, and although he would have a shot at winning, he would run weak in Prince William, and I am not sure he could make up for it in Fairfax. I also do not see why he would risk running and losing , when he could wait for an open seat and have a much easier race presuming the party nominates someone more conservative than Davis. But in the 11th, even with the country and state against Bush, Davis should come out victorious. With over 1 million in the bank, and presumably a good campaign staff, in '06 he seems unbeatable.

5 Comments:

At 11/22/2005 01:23:00 PM, Blogger James Young said...

Careful, TC. It's "reneging." Your version might be used by the professional grievance lobby to charge you with racism.

 
At 11/22/2005 03:13:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

wouldnt want that...

fixed.

 
At 11/22/2005 04:12:00 PM, Blogger AWCheney said...

See...I told you the blogs need spell check! :-)

 
At 11/22/2005 06:42:00 PM, Anonymous NOVA Scout said...

I think Connelly was hoping to get it the easy way, after Davis either went into private industry or went after J Warner's seat. Byrne gained no stature in this last race. Davis would defeat her handily, despite demographic trends. I think almost everyone recognizes that she only did well because of Bolling being her opponent. The wild card would be externals such as Iraq. A Democrat might do well if that isn't under control. However, I feel certain that the awareness level is very, very high in the White House and among Republican Congressional incumbents that we have to be in a much better position there by spring 2006. Today's news that the Iraqi factions had united to ask that we withdraw is tailor-made for the beginning of a rush for the door.

 
At 11/25/2005 07:38:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

While we are spell checking, I think you meant to say Ben Kyber has insight into Andrew Hurst, and not "insite"

 

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