Wednesday, November 02, 2005

Rasmussen Poll Bloggers Pool

As Norm points out over at OMT pointed out to everyone that Rasmussen is in the field tonight. So, I thought it might be fun to see what yu all think will be the result, ala Behan/Raising Kaine in the primary. So, here are the rules. Make a call as to what the poll will say in all three of the races. The individual with the smallest spread will be declared the winner and win absolutely nothing other than the pride of knowing they are a better guesser than anyone else. Governor Kaine: 47 Kilgore: 43 Potts: 4 Lt Governor Byrne: 43 Bolling: 42 Attorney General McDonnell: 45 Deeds: 40 Throw out your guesses ladies and gents. Remember to use some type of handle and not post anonymously.


At 11/02/2005 12:28:00 PM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

Kaine 56
Kilgore 20
Potts 35

Byrne 78
Bolling 44

McDonnell 105
Deeds 12

(I take it you see how much stock I put in polls.)

At 11/02/2005 12:49:00 PM, Blogger Mitch Cumstein said...

Kaine: 48
Kilgore: 42
Potts: 4

Byrne: 38
Bolling: 37

McDonnell: 46
Deeds: 39

Roanoke College just ran a poll that shows Kaine up by 8% with a MoE of 5. To my knowledge, this the first poll showing Kilgore down by more than the MoE. And, unlike the WaPo poll, the polling sample looks rock-solid. It'll be very interesting to see how the campaigns react if Rasmussen's numbers are in the same ballpark.

Unless something dramatically changes over the next few days, Kaine and McDonnell are going to win. In the LG race, it's anyone's guess. My gut tells me that moderates and undecideds who vote for Kaine will break for Byrne. But, in the end, this race will come down to turnout in NoVa.

At 11/02/2005 01:22:00 PM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

Seriously. Has anyone ever heard of a statewide poll by Roanoke College?

Even if the sample looks solid, there are things in the methodology that need to be looked at as well.

I don't give credence to any poll until they've established a solid track record. For example, Quinnipiac has been around for more than a decade now, but they consistently get it wrong, so I still don't trust them. Back in '94 they had Cuomo defeating Pataki by around 8 points the day before Election Day. They haven't improved on that since.

At 11/02/2005 03:37:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

Kaine 46
Kilgore 43
Potts 5

Byrne 45
Bolling 43

Deeds 44
McDonnell 43

At 11/02/2005 06:31:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

And Craddock Vs Caputo? No new news?

At 11/02/2005 07:51:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Seriously. Has anyone ever heard of a statewide poll by Roanoke College?"

Er, yes. They did the same poll at the same time for the Warner Earley race. And it pretty much called the race just right. They reference that in their write-ups. Let's just hope Kilgore doesn't sink worthy delegates or Bolling's chances.

At 11/02/2005 08:28:00 PM, Blogger Jim Hoeft said...

Kaine 45
Kilgore 44
Potts 5
Undecided 6

Bolling 46
Byrne 44
Undecided 10

McDonnell 52
Deeds 45
Undecided 8

At 11/02/2005 11:08:00 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I'm echoing Mr. JMS- you've got it exactly right.

At 11/02/2005 11:39:00 PM, Anonymous NoVA Scout said...

Riley: As Abraham Lincoln said to his law partner, Wm. Herndon, "Billy, you don't never not cheer me up."

Look friends, I don't know what the end story will be. I think we will pull out at least one of the three races and more likely two. But the immediate story is this: The Virginia Republican establishment has already suffered a crushing defeat by fielding candidate who can make this close. We should win every state race by at least 8 points. I expect to hear whining from folks claiming that Iraq etc gnawed into our natural hegemony over Virginia politics. Horse feathers! We fielded a bunch of inside Richmond functionaries with no particular gifts for animating voters statewide. We made it heart-squeezingly close when it should have been a cakewalk. No excuses for this.

Keep your fingers crossed. Vote. Help others vote. Next time I'm not going to put up with this penchant for putting up the minimum necessary to eke out a win.


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