Wednesday, November 09, 2005

The "Status Quo" Election

That's right. You heard it here first. This was a status quo election. No matter how Larry Sabato, Not Larry Sabato or anyone else tries to spin it, there wasn't a heck of a lot of change going on in Virginia last night. In the governor's race, with Warner's 70% popularity rating, Kaine gave voters the perception that he would continue those policies and therefore no reason to oust him. With Kilgore failing to provide a compelling enough reason to change, Kaine held the seat for the Dems. No change. In the two other statewide down ticket races, Republicans picked up the LG spot and appear that they may have held on to the AG post with 8 precincts left. If this holds, then the GOP has a +1 gain in statewide offices, but the big prize eluded them. If the AG post slips away, then there is no net change statewide, only a party switch in the AG / LG seats. In the House of Delegates, it appears that the GOP is net -2 while the Dems are +1 and independents are +1. Again, not much of a change. The small loss in seats here combined with the possible pick up of a statewide office pretty much cancel each other out. As I pointed out last night, every incumbent delegate in Prince William County won and the House delegation remains completely Republican. This happened while Kilgore was losing the county and even a very Republican precinct (Montclair.) It also speaks volumes that the Barg campaign lost despite Kaine's strong showing in the district. That was perhaps the worst campaign I have ever witnessed in all my time here in Prince William County. All in all, not much in the way of change other than a few seats here and there switching parties. Lessons to be learned? Darned if I know.....

9 Comments:

At 11/09/2005 10:31:00 AM, Blogger The Authoritarian Boenau said...

I'm the first person to proclaim "people are stupid," but I still can't believe how many votes Byrne received!

People are stupid!

 
At 11/09/2005 11:47:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I totally disagree. The Delegate races were won after spending close to a million dollars between them -- that money slowed the Democratic surge but will not stop it. Bolling won by a slim majority against a REAL liberal with allot of personal baggage who ran a grossly underfunded campaign. The same can be said of Deeds loss -- did you even see a Deeds sign or lit piece in Prince William? DO NOT try to gloss over this election with self-congratulatory and myopic viewpoints-- this election was a wake up call that will ensure future losses if ignored.

 
At 11/09/2005 12:34:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

I just realized..Greg Scoma..who had all of 18,000 ...did almost as well as Golden.

 
At 11/09/2005 12:36:00 PM, Blogger Bwana said...

If the Waddell lead holds up in Richmond, am I correct in assuming that she will caucus with the Democrats? I ask as she is a self-described moderate who was an aide for Gilmore as AG and then for Hager.

 
At 11/09/2005 01:25:00 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Waddell said she wouldn't caucus with either.

 
At 11/09/2005 02:36:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Status quo? Kaine outperformed Warner by a LOT. He won every single city in Hampton Roads. Virginia Beach/Chesapeake: always described as reliably Republican strongholds in state elections... no more: that nut has been cracked. The house may not have changed all that much, but there just weren't that many competative races in the offing. And Republicans who had hoped to pick up seats from Dems didn't just lose: they got _demolished_. The Dems that failed to beat Republicans, on the other hand in the competative races were comparatively close.

The GOP 72 plan which was so heavily touted over and over on this blog and others as the true show of Republican superiority and management either completely failed, or was crushed by the Democratic GOTV machine (which didn't have a fancy, flashy name and which the Dems were wise enough not to blare around the details of to whomever would listen), which, let's be frank, worked a LOT harder, started a LOT earlier, and built a LOT of infastructure and good will amongst voters via face to face contact and organizing.

The fact that Byrne and Deeds even came close is utterly astounding. Byrne suppports GAY MARRIAGE and ABORTION ON DEMAND. If the Dems hadn't been laser-like focused on talking Tim Kaine to the exclusion of all else, they may well have won those races too.

 
At 11/09/2005 05:52:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Roemmelt outspent Marshall by 2-1 and couldn't win. Black was beat by an opponent that spent almost as much as Black did. Frederick and Barg BOTH ended up over $500,000.

It seems the democrats had a lot of money available. And I don't think they had trouble getting their message out.

 
At 11/09/2005 07:37:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

According to the State Board of Elections website, Bolling won by 23,000 votes. That means, if less than 12,000 people across the State switched their votes, the underfunded campaign of a very liberal and abrasive candidate would have been successful. Or, if the 45,000 people who voted in the Governors race but not in the LG race voted in the latter race, the results could have been different. Any other Democrat other than Byrne would have won yesterday. I cannot believe that this marginal victory against a very weak opponent is being spun as some sort of mandate.

 
At 11/10/2005 05:44:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

From today's RTD:

"It's a surprise that Leslie Byrne was competitive in Virginia to begin with," said Mark Rozell, a political analyst at George Mason University. "A more centrist candidate easily would have won. But voters differentiated between her and the top of the ticket."

 

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