Friday, December 30, 2005

Clarification of Bruce Roemellt

Back at this post, I put Bruce Roemmelt under the loser category.. because of Mr.Roemmelts post on his new blog in which my placement is mentioned, I did some reasearch on the 13th House Seat. In his post he mentions all of the positive things he did with his campaign including: "We knocked those 19,000 doors, raised that $213k, even gave up our ‘Skins tickets till the election was over" While these all seem like very positive events, my logic in placing him was that neighboring Delegate Dick Black was unseated while Delegate Marshall won handidly. Delegates Black and Marshall are ideologically similar,Black and Marshall also ran similar campaigns. Now the win of Poisson could be attributed to as Delegate Petersen mentions below, a drastic quick change in the constituency..which would seem likely because of the continuous building of housing in Eastern Loudoun, and Western movement of the wealthy from Fairfax. Mr.Roemellt won 4 out of 6 precincts in Loudoun..but this can attributed also to a change in constituency coupled with a defeat in Loudoun for Kilgore and Bolling. In Prince William County the Roemellt team only won Sudly North and Mullen Precincts and tanked in the others including:Brentsville, Nokesville, and Linton Hall. It seems in PWC, the 13th House Seat is becoming blue..but slowly. Areas such as Nokesville and Haymarket are still what I would consider "rural" and lack an abundance of cookie cutter neighborhoods..although they are coming. Within the next two cycles I believe strongly that even with Mr.Marshalls incumbency, the district may change below his feet..giving Democrats like Mr.Roemellt the advantage. So Bruce Roemellt-After further reasearch..I do not attribute the loss of the district to your campaign, or to Mr.Marshalls, but simply to the fact that you were working against the conservative far-western part of Prince William County. You are off the loser list.

5 Comments:

At 12/30/2005 11:45:00 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Too Conservative, do you pander to everyone?

 
At 12/30/2005 11:48:00 AM, Blogger too conservative said...

I just did more research on the matter NLS-

I don't place up things(Vince Callahan cough cough) before having a basis for doing so.

 
At 12/30/2005 12:00:00 PM, Anonymous James W. said...

TC,

I try not to get too involved in these kinds of arguments, but some of your numbers are off. Kilgore did not lose the 13th. In fact, you'd be hard pressed to find a Republican who has EVER lost the 13th. Perhaps Dave Mabie, but that doesn't count.

We didn't really get stomped in Linton Hall. We outperformed DPI in Linton Hall by almost 10 points. We certainly got stomped in Brentsville and Nokesville.

Also, the 32nd and 13th shouldn't really be compared just because they neighbor each other. The 13th is a PW-based district, the 32nd is Loudoun -- two very very different places.

I think the DPI in the 32nd is around 43%. The 13th is 38%. That's a big difference.

 
At 12/30/2005 12:16:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

Ben quickly corrected me on Kilgore's win...I was reffering to Kilgores loss in both counties.

In Linton Hall Percentage wise 56%-44% that to me is a big loss.

I disagree on comparing them as well...

As I mentioned both had the exact same type of incumbent..right there is the biggest comparison-the candidate.

Roemellt/Marshall had 6 precincts in Loudoun..and the same dynamics were working across all of Northern Virginia November...not just in one district or another.

Regardless of how it's put..you all got crushed.

I did alittle work in the district for the Ticket..and did not see anyone working for Marshall the entire time..so I do not believe that it was great campaigning from Marshall which did Roemellt in....but instead a conservative district..as I mentioned in the above post.

 
At 12/31/2005 01:46:00 PM, Anonymous James W. said...

I suppose the definition of "crushed" is in the eye of the beholder.

I don't think Black and Bob are the exact same type of candidate at all. To a casual observer their archaic social views would make them similar, but there are two very very important differences.

1. Sprawl -- Both districts have strong anti-sprawl sentiments. Bob is anti-sprawl and very smart about highlighting it, Black is pro-sprawl and doesn't do a very good job of hiding it. That's a huge huge issue.

2. Political sense -- Bob is an anti-woman, anti-gay crusader for 23 months. During the 24th month (November of every two years) he becomes a standard anti-tax, pro-gun Republican. Black is a crusader all day every day. In short, Bob is a lot smarter.

But you're ultimately right, conservative district.

 

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