Monday, December 05, 2005

Curious

As I mentioned before, I felt that the Homestead had one race looming over it, a race that will probably not take place for two years. Still-I am curious as to what would happen in a Gilmore/Davis primary, so I created a poll. If the Senate Primary was tommorrow, and the two candidates were Jim Gilmore and Tom Davis, who would you vote for? The Poll will remain up for a week. Update: With over 120 votes so far Congressman Tom Davis leads 57.63 % to Governor Jim Gilmore 42.37 % Continue to vote...it's confidential, I can't see who you are voting for or who you are.

53 Comments:

At 12/04/2005 05:59:00 PM, Blogger Mitch Cumstein said...

Well, my vote is cast (and probably pretty obvious). Any way that we can track the results?

 
At 12/04/2005 06:03:00 PM, Anonymous tooconservative said...

The results are now public.

Many people who read TC are activists, so I will be interested to see the results.

 
At 12/04/2005 06:19:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jim Gilmore is history in Virginia. Why? His ego is only slightly eclipsed by his narcissim. My advice to Jim? Keep your day job. This has gotta be bad news when a moderate like Davis can clean Gilmore's clock. Yes, Gilmore is a conservative, but we don't like him because of his duplicity and dishonesty and he will no longer represent our movement. The people of Virginia deserve better. At least Congressman Davis is honest, and when you compare him to Gilmore, it is no contest. Gilmore should do the Party a favor and keep himself out of the arena. He is not worthy to be called a Virginian.

 
At 12/04/2005 06:35:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

Now now...Governor Gilmore is worthy to be called a Virginian.

I am just not sure he will ever be able to get elected again state-wide.

In a primary though, he should be able to do very very well.

 
At 12/04/2005 06:38:00 PM, Blogger Shaun Kenney said...

What would be neat to have as a poll...

(1) Do you consider yourself to be a "Northern Virginian" (yes/no)

(2) Whom would you vote for in a hypothetical Republican primary: Congressman Tom Davis or former Governor Jim Gilmore? (Davis/Gilmore/Democratic)

I'd be interested to see precisely how popular Tom Davis is south of the Rappahannock.

Did I mention how I hate online polls? ;)

 
At 12/04/2005 06:40:00 PM, Blogger Hirons said...

I predict Tom Davis will win this poll, but Gilmore would win a primary by 3 to 4 points. Which means I'm not completely convinced Gilmore would walk away with a primary win, but something like a same day Democrat primary could hurt NOVA crossover voters Davis might get otherwise. One thing is for certain, it would be an ugly battle.

Although I'm sure this blog is read by many activists I'd guess there is probably a slight edge to Nothern VA in readership. Which is my weak rationale for predicting the Davis win in the poll.

 
At 12/04/2005 06:46:00 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said...

I am certainly not a NOVAian, but I would be torn on who to vote for.
I believe Gilmore would have a very tough time winning statewide again, but I know enough Davis to say whether I would vote against him.
I think he would be a tough one to beat statewide.

 
At 12/04/2005 06:47:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I live far south of NOVA (Hampton Roads), and I would support Tom Davis without question. Gilmore would be a mistake, as I don't see that he can win statewide again. If Tom Davis won the primary he'd win the general in a walk. Davis would make a good successor to Sen. Warner, and we'd hold the seat. I'm not very certain of that if we run Gilmore.

 
At 12/04/2005 06:49:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

Actually Shaun..from IP locations, about the same number of downstate people read tc as nova.

I honestly think this will be at least fairly accurate.

We can tell from the Connaughton primary, that Loudoun, which voted for Bolling, is in NOVA, but might edge to Gilmore.

 
At 12/04/2005 07:09:00 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I voted for Tom

 
At 12/04/2005 07:10:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

You did?

for tom davis?

I will not disclose who I voted for...

 
At 12/04/2005 07:29:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Tom Davis!

 
At 12/04/2005 07:43:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sean Connaughton's race was a test run for a Davis statewide race. And we know how well Connaughton did in the open primary.

If Davis and Gilmore match up and the Party holds a convention, Davis won't stand a chance. I doubt that Davis would even throw his hat in the ring as the defeat would be too humiliating.

 
At 12/04/2005 07:44:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What happened with the CRs election???

 
At 12/04/2005 07:44:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What happened with the CRs election???

 
At 12/04/2005 07:53:00 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said...

I have to agree 7:43. Davis would have a tough time beating Gilmore in a 2 way primary. If another person like Gilmore ran (i.e. Cantor, Forbes or Goodlatte), then Davis might have a shot. That being said, I dont think any of those other people will run.

 
At 12/04/2005 07:57:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

The thing people don't realize, is how much support Congressman Davis would have.

I feel confident that Fobes and Drake would endorse him, as well as a MAJORITY of the legislature.

I know up here in NOVA, even ultra-right members of the legislature have quietly endorsed.

 
At 12/04/2005 08:09:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This may sound like a silly question, but how confident are people that John Warner will retire in 2008? I'm seriously asking, because I don't know. Also, while it's fun to speculate, this sure seems to be getting ahead of ourselves: we still have to get through 2006 and 2007 first, both of which present Republicans with plenty of work.

 
At 12/04/2005 08:24:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

There is no way that Gilmore would have a snowball's change at winning the General Election b/c all the Democratic candidate would have to do is keep reminding people what a financial disaster Gilmore left the state in.....the Republican party I hope would have better sense than to nominate Gilmore.

 
At 12/04/2005 08:28:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

While no one knows for sure...I would find it odd of Congressman Davis would be spending this much time energy, and money trying to get support if he didnt have an inkling.

And yes I know it is far away...but it's just fun to speculate.

 
At 12/04/2005 08:47:00 PM, Anonymous Chris said...

I'm not so sure about Tom Davis. I AM a resident of NOVA, and infact I am represented by both he and his wfe (Fairfax City, represent!) In fact, one of Davis's district offices is mere footsteps from my apartment. His power up here is a bit on the wain. Several reasons: One, the turnout in the governor's race last year went WAY bad for the Republicans, which I think he took notice. Secondly, you talk about honesty. Alot of people here wonder what would happen given the circumstances of his divorce and remarriage in a statewide race. Thirdly, his touch seems to be dying abit. In 2002, he personally picked Michelle Bryckner for Chairman of the County Supervisors, and she lost fairly badly to Democrat Gerry Connelly. I think people are woo-ed by "moderate" and "from Northern Virignia" abit too much. I go with Gilmore, a proven state-wide winner who's record is not as bad as people think. I mean, I think its kind of interesting that we all say Warner hoodwinked us in the tax revenues, but then don't go all the way and say maybe Gilmore didn't mismanage the economy as people say. Besides, whoever it were, who do the Dems have? Warner would be running for president. Kaine? If he wins, then Bolling gets a year-long headstart in '09. I think whoever wins a Davis-Gilmore matchup would win the senate seat unless Warner ran or Kaine bit the bullet and ran (OR, if Deeds pulls out an AG win).

 
At 12/04/2005 08:53:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I put this on an earlier post - BUT - it still holds. Gilmore articulates the issues I care about.... more than a few of my friends agree. It isn't enough to be good looking and have great name id (Allen) or be popular & well funded (Mark Warner)

If Virginia is going to produce the next President, I prefer Gilmore. Sure - he has his baggage but at least he is a moral & steady leader. Not wishy washy like Allen. Or full-out socialist like Warner.

 
At 12/04/2005 08:55:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am not saying Allen is not moral - he is a wonderful US Senator, and a fine leader - I respect & admire him very much. My concern is that once the Dem machine engages against him - that he will peak TOO early - and we'll get stuck with McCain.

That was my point.... Sorry - didn't mean to offend the Allen supporters!

 
At 12/04/2005 09:05:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

Hm Chris.

I see the waning thought, but I disagree.

Tom Davis has been a stabilizer for Northern Virginia, maintaning the balance between conservative and liberal elected officials.

Although he may say some strange comments, he is a solid conservative who has a more conservative voting record than Frank Wolf.

A fact I learned at the advance:Congressman Davis was one of the first people to come out in support of Ronald Reagan in NOVA, even during the presidential primaries.

He is a fiscal conservative, and social moderate. Any who says other is out of touch with the real Tom Davis.

Regarding Gilmore and the state, there's no thought about it...his car tax, which he never even phased out, he did hurt our state financially.

Warners tax raise was not needed though.

 
At 12/04/2005 09:22:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gilmore

 
At 12/04/2005 09:28:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"He is a fiscal conservative, and social moderate. Any who says other is out of touch with the real Tom Davis."


Then how can you say he's a "solid conservative" ... I'm not hating on Davis here ... just stand up for what he believes in and don't coat it with this "solid conservative" stuff.

 
At 12/04/2005 09:43:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

How is he not a solid conservative?

Give me issues.

 
At 12/04/2005 10:35:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You said yourself he was a "social moderate" ... moderate does not equal conservative. So whatever issues you deem "social," he's a moderate on them, according to you. Thus, not a 'solid conservative.'

 
At 12/04/2005 10:37:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

The only issues I would consider him moderate on are abortion and gay marriage.

I am not going on a vote basis, which he is solid conservative on both, but on his speech.

 
At 12/04/2005 10:54:00 PM, Anonymous Chris said...

I like Davis, too, Too Conservative. He's a good congressman who works very hard. He is certainly better than Frank Wolfe. But I am mostly worried that if Davis goes for a state-wide seat, his seat will be lost. I know Jeanniemarie is in line to replace him, but I worry, you know. There is Gerry Connelly, maybe Fairfax Mayor Robert Lederer, or someone like that. Especially Connelly. I think Davis might stay in Congress for the sake of his seat. What do you think?

 
At 12/04/2005 10:57:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jim Gilmore's legacy is so hated by the GOP that his wife had to go to the 2004 Republican National Convention as an Alternate Delegate, they didn't even give her the courtesy to go as a Delegate like dear Jim. Gilmore is the consumate do nothing, say anything punk politician. The problem was not with Gilmore's proposal to eliminate the car tax, the problem was that when the state revenues did not hit the statutory amount necessary to enact a full 70% reduction in the reimbursement to localities for the car tax cut, Jim Gilmore chose deceit and dishonesty over the truth. Because the state revenues were not coming in at the amount necessary to automatically trigger the 70% reduction, Gilmore made big retailers pay their taxes in advance of sales. In other words, Mr. Corporation, you guess how much taxable income you will make in the second quarter of this year and pay me your tax revenue now in the first quarter. This was his way of making the State's Treasury look like it had more revenue to finish the fiscal year than was actually earned in the fiscal year. Typical dumbass politician. This is why the folks in Washington had "Jim Good Legacy" Gilmore rolled out as RNC Chairman. Folks, Gilmore was blown out of Washington quicker than a wilted blossom off a cherry tree. The good folks in DC knew that Virginia hated Gilmore and they didn't want his liability any longer. Gilmore didnt't help matters when he appointed folks like Brian Slater to staff positions to the RNC. Slater, of neandrathal intellect, hung up the phone during an argument with an important DC person who worked for the MAN who lives in the "House."
The DC Republicans knew an idiot when they saw one and fired him. The people of Virginia know an incapable idiot masqarading as an politician when they see one, and they won't give him a second chance. Gilmore is exposed as the sniveling idiot who is no longer invited to the dance. Keep your coat on Jim, I hear it's cold in the political graveyard.

 
At 12/04/2005 11:09:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

wow anon, sounds like years of bottled up anger all at once...i like it.

Chris-There's no way Mrs.Devolites-Davis is in line to replace him.

She's looking at state-wide, or Fairfax County Chairman.

For Davis' Seat either O'Brien, Hugo , or Connaughton.

 
At 12/04/2005 11:19:00 PM, Anonymous Chris said...

You really think that Tom Davis won't want his wife, whom he goes home with every night, to take his seat in Congress? Really? Not that I am advocating that, mind you. Actually, the idea of Jay O'Brien, Tim Hugo (!!!), or Sean Connaughton is very exciting. But you know, my mind is AlWAYS churning. If Jeaniemarie runs for chairman against Connelly, then Hugo can run for the state senate, and Connaughton can go to Congress. God I love politics!

 
At 12/04/2005 11:23:00 PM, Blogger Nikhil Verma said...

I am actually very moderate on a lot of social issues myself. As a Northern Virginian, I think the party does need someone who is moderate on social issues and from NoVa.
The data does not lie. Look at Kaine v. Kilgore in Fairfax, Loudon, and Prince William county. Kaine beat Kilgore. And in 2001, Warner beat Earley in Fairfax county. I have said this before and I will say it again- the key to keeping Virginia a red state is to nominate a "moderate" on social issues that affect minorities and women.
We need 21st century Republicans in this party- not ideological zealots who act suprised when they meet someone who doesn't look like or think like them. As the national party knows, if Republicans don't do a better job of reaching out to minorities of ALL backgrounds (not just Christian), they will revert back to being a party out of power. That's not a prediction. That's a promise.

Nikhil

 
At 12/04/2005 11:30:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

Nikhil-
Although personally I am a strong Christian conservative, I agree with you, especially if we ever want to make inroads in Northern Virginia.

State-wide I disagree. I believe in this state which has a hard Christian base, that if we do not play up to our base, we will lose them.

Chris-Yes, I believe strongly that Mrs.Devolites-Davis will try and run state-wide again, or possibly for Chairman of the county.

Tim Hugo lives in Jay O'Brien's senate seat I believe, and thus would still be a delegate.


Yes, I believe Congressman Davis would obviously favor his wife against anyone, for whatever they wish to run for(it has been seen before), but I do not believe she wants Congress.

 
At 12/05/2005 12:04:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 10:57 has it exactly right. Gilmore alienated Republicans as well as Democrats in his years in the Mansion. Remember his eveasdropping on phone calls? It would be great for him to run and waste a lot of donors money though.

 
At 12/05/2005 12:31:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gilmore was a solid leader. His management style was hard-core, he didn't staff things out - he did the hard work himself & has taken the responsibility. And all of the heat for it - it absolutely astonishes me how FAIR WEATHER some republicans can be.

Gilmore didn't tick off anyone in DC, he took responsibility for Earley's loss - nevermond that Earley was yet another protege of Allen's - that wasn't interesting enough to the voters to believe in him.

Gilmore could be a real, solid defender of Virginia Values.

 
At 12/05/2005 08:14:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gilmore was fired by the President as head of the RNC. This is no spin or whatever; it is the simple truth.

 
At 12/05/2005 09:40:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You can't compare a would-be primary b/t Gilmore and Davis to Bolling vs. Connaughton. Turnout would be much higher in a federal Senate primary than it was in a state LG primary. The numbers would more closely track Bush/McCain in 2000. Under that scenario, Davis is more like McCain, whereas Bush is more like Gilmore. Thus, Gilmore, baggage aside, may have a natural advantage starting out as the more "conservative" candidate. But Davis would absolute be within striking distance, as was McCain in 2000. He just would have to run a good race and he could pull it off. Of course, if it is a convention, it's a whole new ball game!

 
At 12/05/2005 01:14:00 PM, Blogger Palmetto Neocon said...

Maybe I didn't read this carefully enough, but I hope y'all are talking about Allen's seat. Allen's seat comes up in 2007, not Warner. Warner doesn't come up until 2009...an anon. commenter stated something about Warner retiring in 08...
In other news, in The State, the newspaper of SC, "Many Bush backers in SC like Allen in '08" Its a good read...http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/politics/13323274.htm

 
At 12/05/2005 01:26:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

Palmetto-

Yes...but Allen is running next year in '06, and will be re-elected.

This leaves John Warner to run again in '08 if he did.

 
At 12/05/2005 02:38:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Chris of masonconservative...

What's your beef with Frank Wolf?

 
At 12/05/2005 04:09:00 PM, Blogger Hirons said...

Perhaps this belongs as a topic of its own, but just a question . . Is Republican representation of Virginia's two Senate seats in jeopardy?

Noodle the following. We now have a Democrat governor until '09. He appoints any vacancy in open Senate seats.

Allen wins relection in '06 -easy
Warner dies before '08
Allen wins Republican nomination for Presidency in '08 and resigns his Senate seat.

Potentially Gov. Kaine could be appointing two senators before the end of his term. Who would these appointments be - would they occur far enough advance of an election to fill the seat to have an effect on long term representation of the seat?

 
At 12/05/2005 04:12:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gilmore left the RNC because he took responsibility for the failure of Earley's campaign - and for Schundler's disasterous bid in New Jersey.

The fact is that Jim Gilmore is a tried & true WINNER statewide.

Davis' protege Connaughton, as attractive a candidate as he is, was not able to beat Gilmore's guy (Bolling) in the primary.

Jim Gilmore isn't some party hack. He was Governor of the Commonwealth through some pretty tough times, and because he is a man of character - he took responsibility. Davis is okay, but before we get all high on another member of Congress for anything - let's make sure he idn't tied up in the Abramoff corruption.

Gilmore is a proven conservative. Gilmore HAS won statewide. Gilmore has a political machine that was successful in 2005. He wasn't a perfect Governor, no one ever is. He will make a fine US Senate replacement for John Warner. Or any other office he seeks. I think folks underestimate his political acumen at their peril.

 
At 12/05/2005 04:28:00 PM, Blogger Mitch Cumstein said...

I know a number of life-long conservative Republicans (not just activists but elected officials) who have told me personally that Warner is a better Governor than Gilmore was. If sentiment like that exists (which it does), I don't think he'd have a chance in another statewide contest.

 
At 12/05/2005 05:18:00 PM, Blogger MR JMS said...

Anon 4:12-

Gilmore left the RNC because DC was not big enough for the egos of Karl Rove and Jim Gilmore. Rove won that battle amongst the insiders in DC. If anyone gives you any other reason for his departure they are simply practicing revisionist history or commenting on a matter they know little about.

 
At 12/05/2005 06:24:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Having worked with and for both men... the battle of ego is as close to truth as we'll probably ever get. That relationship is & was complex.

But Rove isn't going to be on the ballot in Virginia. Gilmore will.

As for Warner being a better Governor than Gilmore... time will tell. Warner spent a whole lot of time courting the NoVa moderates when he ran in 2001. He courted the Davis moderates and won. But those folks are Kaine's now. Will they switch back and vote for Tom Davis? Dunno.

Can Gilmore expect a fight for any office? Yes, he can. But he has worked hard to develop a strong portfolio since he left the Mansion for the private sector. And he is a formidable force.

 
At 12/06/2005 12:00:00 AM, Anonymous Chris said...

Can a conservative in in NOVA? First of all, they don't have to "win" to win. Keep it above 45% in Prince William, Loudon, and Fairfax, and its ours. Bill Bolling, an unabashed consevative, outpolled Jerry Kilgore, substantially in some cases, in those three counties. I think people up here respond to convictions. When Republicans are on our game, arguing with unity for tax cuts and spending limits, we can do well up here. Its when we are left with wishy-washing RINOS (John Mason), Neophyte zealots (Craddock), or guys who are just in over their heads (Golden). Jay O'Brien, Tim Hugo, and Ken Cuccinelli are proof that you can be conservative a win up here. In a way, so is Bolling. Kilgore came off, and it was snobbery of NOVAians, as a hick who had no original thought in his brain. Thats of course ridiculous, but its what you face up here. Its message and unity up here.

 
At 12/06/2005 07:43:00 AM, Blogger Bwana said...

Let me toss another idea in the hopper...that the senate may not be the best place for Mr. Gilmore...

It has been frequently seen that some folks are better made for the executive branch than the legislative.

Mr. Gilmore's entire political career has been based in executive type positions (Comm Att, AG, Gov), and I really have to wonder if he would be happy in the legislature...

 
At 12/06/2005 08:02:00 AM, Anonymous Pachyderm Princess said...

Just an FYI. Connaughton doesn't live in the 11th district. He lives in the 1st. So, unless he moves, he would be hard for him to run for Davis' seat.

Second, poor GOP turn out should be attributed to the Party's candidate on the ballot. Jerry Kilgore didn't inspire people to get to the polls. I have talked to several Republicans who told me they couldn't bring themselves to vote for a Democrat, but they didn't want to vote for Kilgore either so they just stayed home. It is the state party's fault that we didn't put up a stronger candidate, but you can't blame anyone, especially not Davis, for failing to turn a cow's ear in to a silk purse.

 
At 12/06/2005 08:03:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gilmore was fired by the President because he was inept, mean, and attempted to impose the Fitzhugh Street mafia on the RNC. The Speaker of the House of Representatives and other leaders of the House and Senate, several Governors, and the senior leadership of the RNC demanded Gilmore resign or the President fire him. The President "gave" Gilmore his resignation letter. Stop making up history!

 
At 12/06/2005 09:19:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gilmore claims to be a party man, yet he contributed nothing to pay into the roughly $800,000 settlement that RPV reached over the eavesdropping scandal. The state party has a debt of like 60k outstanding to pay its lawyer bill on this case. Has Gilmore ponied up any money? Nope, not a dime. Did Gilmore pony up any money for legislative candidates in this past election cycyle? Nope, not a dime. Remember that is was Gilmore's hand picked proteges at RPV, Gary Thomson and Ed Matricardi, that were at the center of the eavesdropping scandal. While I do like both of these folks and I don't care for Gilmore, you have got to judge a man's character by the people he places in positions of trust around him. Based upon this criteria, Gilmore surrounds himself with say anything yes men who put themselves and their party in positions of great peril. Case closed. What does Gilmore do when his friends go down? Nothing, he likes to watch 'em sway in the wind. At least Congressman Davis paid into the settlement, and he didn't even have a hand in appointing either former RPV Chairman Thomson or former RPV executive direcdtor Ed Matricardi. As a conservative, I disagree with Davis on some issues, but, the man steps up to the plate when it counts. Compare that to Gilmore who still has not assisted RPV pay its settlement with the Dems and has still refused to assist RPV pay its outstanding legal bill. Has he bank? You bet. The sparks are flying from the grindstone as we sharpen our hatchets in anticipation of Gilmore's return to the arena. We will not be fooled again. We will have our vengange. Gilmore shall no longer represent the conservative movement in Virginia. From the most conservative localities throughout the state to the most liberal to the moderate ones, we all eagerly await his return. I can't wait to see the whites of his eyes when we punk him out like the creep he is.

 
At 12/06/2005 01:09:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wow.. such fear and hate of another Republican blows me away. Folks, in California that I Hate That Governor thing cost us an entire package of reform.

Jim Gilmore wasn't responsible for Gary Thomson or Ed Matricardi. Those two men were responsible for their own actions. And George Allen was the top of the ticket in 2000 (other than W) - not Gilmore. Gilmore was on his way out already - Earley was the 2001 guy - if there was any question about the parties responsible - it was the guys running then.

Should Gilmore have ponied up something, probably. But he made a lot of other guys successful and they were all too happy to take the love when he offered it.

Gilmore isn't the jerk. Boyd Marcus is the jerk.

 

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