Friday, December 23, 2005

The Number Game

Living in the 33rd Senate District for along time, and having a mother who has taught in the district longer than I have been alive , I know the constituents very well... Besides the fact that I feel Randy Minchew is the best man for the job, I have done a little research to try and prove just why Randy Minchew will actually come out ahead in this race... Now I know this is not a state-run all out primary, and that it will most likely be either a mass meeting or firehouse in specific locations. I feel that Chairman Sean Connaughton, and Mr.Randy Minchew share alot of the same conservative credentials, and will have a lot the same support, so I took the June 14th primary results and found out some statistics with them. Overall in the 33rd District Sean Connaughton beat Bill Bolling 52%-48% Over 30% of the primary votes cast in the 33rd Senate Seat were from the Fairfax precincts, where Connaughton beat Bolling 62%-38% This was obviously bumped up due to the election in the 67th between Chris Craddock and Gary Reese, but even so in the precincts Mims shares with the 67th, Sean Connaughton beat Bolling 65%-35%. In fact..Connaughton ran AHEAD of Chris Craddock in the 33rd, where Craddock beat Reese 58%-42% Looking deeper into what these numbers mean..I believe Connaughton would have won by an ever larger margin in the 67th, if it were not for the huge number of hard-right voters Craddock got out. Connaughton even trounced Bolling in Chris Craddocks home precinct of Lees Corner, where turnout was superhigh. In the Loudoun Precincts of the 33rd, where Delegate Dick Black had gone out of his way to hold fundraisers for Bill Bolling, and no major primary was present... Connaughton barely lost to Bill Bolling 48%-52%. If Randy Minchew can quickly get his message out to primary voters in the 33rd, he will win the election...as the percieved "conservatives" of the 33rd were out before June against every sensible candidate. The WaPo also looks into the race

17 Comments:

At 12/23/2005 10:39:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sean's vote was all liberal Democrat crossover.

 
At 12/23/2005 11:39:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

Ha!

Nice try anon- I worked the polling locations on this day..and the Democrats had their own elections to vote in..

Why would democrats vote for a Republican who would give them a harder time after the primary?

They wouldnt!

Connaughton crushed in NOVA, which is why Staton will not win in a cakewalk

 
At 12/23/2005 11:54:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sean Connaughton is a joke. He is not all that conservatives, and is not a man of convictions. Whichever way the wind blows, so goes Sean...and like the wind, he blows.

 
At 12/24/2005 12:15:00 AM, Blogger too conservative said...

Thats great anon-

The point of the post..is not to argue over Connaughton..but to simply show that the election between Staton and Minchew is not over, even with the Black crowd claiming they've already won.

Chairman Minchew is a strong conservative, and I have yet to year any evidence disproving his conservative credentials.

...BUT anon-that said I still have to disagree with you. Connaughton is not a man of polls, not an all or nothing man, but instead a man who does what is best for his constituents.

If he went wherever the wind blew...he wouldnt be at odds with some of the far right.

 
At 12/24/2005 09:04:00 AM, Blogger Mitch Cumstein said...

Anon 11:54 -

"Sean Connaughton is a joke."

No, Sean is a dedicated public servant who may hold some specific views or made certain decisions with which you do not seem to agree. You are a joke.

 
At 12/24/2005 09:10:00 AM, Anonymous NOVA Scout said...

Anon 2354 could perhaps regale us with the issues on which Connaughton has not been a solid conservative. It wouldn't take more than a nanosecond. The only people who question his conservative bona fides are folks who use the labels recklessly for political advantage.

Minchew is an electable Republican who has other accomplishments to his name. He is the type of candidate the GOP wil increasingly have to field to maintain relevance in Northern Virginia

 
At 12/24/2005 09:49:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Getting back to reality: The growth issue may swamp both Minchew and Staton. The folks in Loudoun are more concerned with that then social issues. They want social conservatives, but those who don't wear it on their sleeves and make it their only reason for being in office. Growth politics will likely overwhelm the Republicans in Loudoun.

 
At 12/24/2005 05:05:00 PM, Anonymous NOVA Scout said...

The last point is a very sound one. Loudoun, like PW, is in the crosshairs of growth politics, and this can cut against unskilled politicians of either party.

 
At 12/26/2005 11:48:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Take a look at Mick Staton's website...www.mickstaton.com.....there's not one iota of family values, abortion, gay marriage....looks like Mick is trying to distance himself from his pappy-in-law's antics....hopefully folks in Mims' district will see through Staton's BS and vote for Minchew.

 
At 12/26/2005 01:02:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This will come back to haunt Staton and the Republicans in Loudon:

Staton: Growth control not answer
By Mick Staton, Supervisor, R-Sugarland Run
07/26/2005


Here we go again. The Loudoun land wars are back on and more bitter than ever.

The advocates of taking away people's rights have done an impressive job of creating a straw man in the form of the nameless, faceless developer in order to dehumanize the farmers whose rights are being stripped away. Next, they accuse anyone who questions their extremist position as being corrupt and “not looking out for the best interests of Loudoun County.”


But what exactly are the best interests of Loudoun?


When I talk to people they raise three main issues. They want to pay lower taxes, they want to spend less time in traffic and they want to preserve their quality of life

But I can tell you right now that downzoning western Loudoun will not achieve any of those goals.

Supervisor Lori Waters (R-Broad Run) even admitted in public that this radical downzoning will not reduce taxes or ease traffic problems. But when I asked her why she supported this action in light of her own admissions, she refused to answer.

Downzoning western Loudoun will not lead to lower taxes. Only politicians who are dedicated to controlling spending can do that.

The last Board of Supervisors allowed spending to increase three times faster than our population increased, and holdovers from that board are constantly criticizing me for my dedication to lower taxes.

When Supervisor Jim Burton (I-Blue Ridge) and Chairman Scott York (I-at large) start advocating true cuts in spending and a lower property tax rate, I will start to believe their dedication to lowering the tax burden on Loudoun’s families, but not before.

Downzoning western Loudoun will not lead to less traffic and shorter commutes. Most of our commuters are stuck on Route 7 and Route 50, and the majority of traffic on those roads is coming from either the eastern suburbs or from Winchester or West Virginia where the Northern Virginia region is already pushing development.

It doesn’t matter whether a home is built on every three acres, every five acres, or every 50 acres in western Loudoun, traffic won’t get better until we fix our roads.

The only things downzoning western Loudoun will do is to take away the rights of the most vulnerable property owners in Loudoun County, take up thousands of hours of staff time, costs millions of dollars in legal fees and court costs, and possibly lead to another defeat in court.

During this time, thousands more three-acre lots will be created and any supposed benefit of this extremist action will nonetheless be nullified.

Instead of focusing all the governments’ efforts on demonizing Loudoun County property owners, why don’t we focus on better performance standards and demand real accountability from the government that is constantly demanding more and more of our money.

Instead of focusing on taking away the rights of farmers whose only 401K plan is their land, why don’t we work on real plans to improve our existing roads and build new roads to deal with the constant traffic congestion.

These are the real ways we will improve the quality of life for Loudoun County citizens.

It is a real shame we have started back down this course. I tried to reach out to bridge the gulf between the two sides of this issue. I tried to find a real compromise between what the extremists were advocating and the current A-3 zoning to find something the landowners could live with and could end the divisiveness once and for all. Instead, a bare majority of supervisors are supporting a position advocated by the group that is literally trying to split Loudoun County in two, and you can’t get more radical than that.

Like Yogi Berra said, It’s déjà vu all over again. Loudoun County has apparently forgotten its own history and will be doomed to repeat it unless the majority realizes the mistakes they have made and pull us back before it’s too late.

 
At 12/26/2005 01:07:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Staton is a tax raiser.

When they adopted the budget this year, the Loudoun Board lowered the rate knowing it did not bring significant relief to taxpayers whose assessments have gone up every year:

Tax due on a $66,000 increase in assessment (the average increase from 2004 to 2005) at the old rate -- $731

Tax due on the extra $66,000 at the $1.04 rate -- $686

Amount saved by cutting the rate -- $45

Staton defended the new rate and the budget process.

 
At 12/26/2005 06:18:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I live in Staton's district. When he ran he promised that he would cut my taxes. He touted his signing of the ATR "no more tax" pledge. Since he has gotten elected my taxes have gone up over $1000 and traffic has gotten worse. Staton keeps on telling us he is a man of principle and we don't understand. He is a big reason why I voted for Kaine -- at least the Democrats don't lie to us about who they are.

 
At 12/27/2005 10:24:00 AM, Blogger James Young said...

Nice try, Vince, but I get back to who it was who supported Chairman Sean locally. Present company excepted, I can identify at least two far-Left types who sported Connaughton stickers on their cars. One up the street from my house contemporaneously had a few far-Left stickers on their vehicles; another that I pass regularly now sports a Kaine for Governor sticker. An unscientific method, to be sure, but one which reveals something (what, I'm not sure) about some of those who were enthused about Chairman Sean.

 
At 12/27/2005 10:46:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wow - Jim Young found the smoking gun! I hope he next uses his deductive reasoning abilities to find out who really killed JFK, where Jimmy Hoffa is buried, and whether the Loch Ness monster is real.

 
At 12/27/2005 10:55:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

How can Jim Young explain this?:

http://www.jameswalkinshaw.org/

One of the strangest moments for me during the last cycle was watching former Delegate Dick Black pass out bumper stickers at a Muslim family picnic in Reston. He was passing them out to absolutely EVERYONE. Instead of walking up to someone and introducing himself, he would walk up and jam a bumper sticker into any free hand he could find. But it gets better.

After handing over the prized merchandise, Black would proceed with a pantomine display of what one should do with a bumper sticker. Watching Virginia’s “most principled” conservative teaching veiled women how to apply a bumper sticker was almost too much to handle.

At the time, I figured he was just wasting good bumper stickers. I mean, these people had no idea who he was, nor did they care. But yesterday I saw a strange thing — a white cargo van with two bumper stickers. One proudly proclaimed “Kerry Edwards…a stronger America,” the other said, simply, “Black for Delegate.” Could this have been one of Delegate Black’s bumper sticker pupils? Were his lessons too much to resist? I guess we’ll never know.

 
At 12/27/2005 01:44:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jim-

Sean has some crazy-righters supporting him too...

Reverend Pat Robertson for example!

If someone likes John Kerry..but Sean too..is this BAD for out party?

 
At 12/27/2005 02:54:00 PM, Anonymous NoVA Scout said...

Pat Robertson has long been trending pink in his liberal political crusades. Any doubt about his sympathies for the far left was erased with his generous support of the notorious pro-life, pro-gun, fiscally disciplined, anti-tax Connaughton, a commie if there ever was one. I saw one of Connaughton's bumper stickers on Leonid Brezhnev's Zil limousine. I also happen to know that Connaughton and Trotsky played bridge with Diego Rivera and Che Guevara every other Wednesday during Trotsky's exile days in Mexico City. It was there that Frida Kahlo gave Connaughton the idea to jigger the entire Prince William economy 60 years later so as to increase prosperity to the point that, while cutting taxes, Connaughton could effect a stealth tax increase by making the citizens more prosperous. Robertson was on the payroll of the Comintern even back then, by the way. It's all quite diabolical. Only a few geniuses can see through these machinations.

 

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