Tuesday, December 06, 2005

Quick Update on Congressional Races

As mentioned a while back on NLS, Virginia's 2nd Congressional seat will be contentious this year. With Tim Kaine winning the 2nd 50-47, Drake may be in for a hard fought race. Some recent articles on the 2nd can be found here, here, and here. After Republican Kevin Triplett lost handidly to Congressman Rick Boucher in the 9th, it seems as though only Jerry Kilgore could successfully bump him out. Kilgore performed his best in the ninth, winning it 55 to 43. In the 10th, Young and Rich James Socas proclaimed he would run against Frank Wolf 3 times, but no word yet on if he means what he preached. Although-His website it still up and operational... In the 11th, Congressman Tom Davis has pronounced his will run again, and has recently hired a new campaign manager, as his old cm is now Executive Director of the Maryland GOP. Democrats have yet to put up a big name against Davis, but speculations of Leslie Byrne, or Gerry Connolly throwing their hats in are still circulating.

35 Comments:

At 12/06/2005 05:02:00 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said...

I don't think Drake is in too much trouble. If she runs a tough campaign (which she will, she knows it will be a tough race) she will win.
Boucher is basically unbeatable. Kilgore may be able to hold his own, but Bush got almost 60% in the 9th but Boucher got that much too. The area is GOP, but they love Boucher.
Davis is (as always) the most vulenable seat, but I believe he knows how to campaign and will be fine as well. Conelly would give him a heck of race though. I think Conelly will wait and Byrne will get crushed.

 
At 12/06/2005 05:53:00 PM, Anonymous NoVA Scout said...

Just when we despair about GOP picks, we can always looked to our brothers and sisters in the other party. If they run Leslie, they really are as delusional as a lot of our folks. This woman is unelectable in Virginia outside the city limits of Falls Church, Arlington or Alexandria. I'm not sure who is going to draw the biggest wrong lesson from this past November. Will the Republicans think Bill Bolling is more than a vacuous, no-outside-life career pol full of conservative cliches because he barely beat Leslie Byrne, or will the Democrats think Leslie Byrne is more than a no-outside life, outdated liberal careeer pol because she almost beat Bill Bolling? Confusion reigns in eye-spinner circles of both parties.

Tom Davis beats anyone who runs against him. Connelly would make it interesting, though. The race gets a bit toughter each cycle as the demographics shift. But Tom is an objectively good representative of all the people of this District.

 
At 12/06/2005 06:12:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Connelly would give Davis a run for his money, but the Davis-machine is a powerhouse in-and-of-itself.

I think Davis is mildly vulnerable to Connelly, but in the end, Davis will work to destroy anyone who ever gets in his way- in his district.

 
At 12/06/2005 07:03:00 PM, Blogger neocon22 said...

I hope there is a nasty primary for the dems in the 11th. that might divide them up a bit, much us republicans are right now.

 
At 12/06/2005 07:29:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

agreed neocon.

I have heard from many elected Fairfas Democrats that they are not all to found of Chairman Connolly. Hopefully when/if he ever decided to run, the Republicans wont be the only ones with a primary.

 
At 12/06/2005 08:23:00 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said...

I realize I am on the Chairman Sean cheerleader site here, but I think you all are being awfully critical of Bolling. He did run 8 points ahead of his top of the ticket cohort. When was the last time that happened?
I think the top was too far down to help Bolling secure a blowout.
I think the same type of thing would have probably happened had Chairman Sean been on the ballot.
Just a thought though.

 
At 12/06/2005 08:39:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

Im not sure where you got the negative attack on Bolling from...

NOVA Scout was simply reporting the truth. That we now have a Lt. Governor who BARELY won against a self-proclaimed communist.

 
At 12/06/2005 09:22:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

TC: "Im not sure where you got the negative attack on Bolling from..."

Nova Scout: "Will the Republicans think Bill Bolling is more than a vacuous, no-outside-life career pol full of conservative cliches..."

I'd call that a fairly negative attack. Sometimes I wonder if you read the posts on your own blog, TC.

 
At 12/06/2005 09:24:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

gophokie, where are you getting the 8% from? According to the official result posted at http://www.sbe.vipnet.org/ Kilgore got 45.99% while Bolling got 50.47%, a difference of 4.48%.

 
At 12/06/2005 09:26:00 PM, Anonymous Adam said...

They often say in politics not to get too comfortable in your seat and run "scared" everytime. If Boucher is defeated, it would be because of this.

The right person certainly could beat Rick Boucher. It would take much effort. Jerry Kilgore definitely would be one of those right people.

In next year's election, turnout would be a key to a successful campaign since there is no Presidential or other high profile Election. A well organized voter education project would be significant too. Combined with the right kind of turnout operation, Kilgore might be able to pull it off it he ran. He certainly would (or for that matter anybody running against Boucher) need to start the campaign early. In 2004 Triplett got much of a late start.

One thing is almost for certain is I would say that once Rick Boucher leaves office his seat will return to Republican hands.

 
At 12/06/2005 09:59:00 PM, Anonymous Chris said...

Bolling strength or weakness, because they're are arguments for both sides. I voted for Sean Connaughton in the primary, but I am very proud to have voted for Bill Bolling. The question is, did he blow it in the campaign, or did Kilgore's bad campaign and Kaine's very high turnout drag Bolling down and artificially boost Byrne's numbers? It seems like this election broke to Kaine fairly late, as McDonnell and Bolling both were polling well ahead of Deeds and Byrne in Sept. & Oct. Bolling barely won and McDonnell is in a recount. I personally think the Kilgore numbers drug the entire ticket down. But cases could be made in both ways.

I like Sean, but something about Bolling, how red-meat/red-state he is, I just love it. I wish Kilgore talked in the campaign the way Bolling did.

 
At 12/06/2005 10:00:00 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said...

Anon, I apologize. I was thinkin Kilgore lost by about 6 and Bolling won by about 1.5. Thats where the 8 came from.
My mistake. It is about 4.5 ahead.

 
At 12/06/2005 10:15:00 PM, Anonymous NOVA Scout said...

I was really thinking much more about BYrne than Bolling and using the Bolling example as a counterpoint. My point was that when people start theorizing about Leslie Byrne running against Davis, they are attributing to her a strength she does not have. If the Dems run her against Davis, they're repeating the mistake they made in selecting the only candidate from their array of primary contenders that Bolling could beat (although he sure made it close) The irony is that she looked better than she really is as a candidate by running close to Bolling, who was himself a weak candidate. Conversely, there are (believe it or not) folks in our own GOP who attribute merit to Bolling for beating Byrne by 1.15 percentage points. It was truly a battle of electoral Lilliputians. What I find curious is that some in both camps are now spinning it to have been a battle of Titans and seem eager to roll them both out again.

As to my characterizations of each, I stand by them. There is nothing I have found in either of their lives or records that indicates to me that they have any particular skill other than running for office. I don't know how to say that in a positive way (perhaps something like "late bloomers who have put aside success in the real world for perpetual career of seeking voter approval, forsaking professional, academic and/or military distinction until such time as they have completed races for nearly everything"). I have always had a stong aversion to politicians of any stripe for whom politics defines their existence. It was one of my biggest gripes about Bill Clinton (although I concede he is an intelligent, if amoral, fellow). The guy didn't serve in uniform, he didn't succeed in business, he just ran for office. Byrne and Bolling are very much like that (without the charm). So if the Democrats run Byrne against Davis on the strength of the LG campaign, they aren't thinking very clearly.

PS: I attribute no particular strength to Bolling running significantly ahead of Kilgore. So did everyone else except Potts. I can't conclude much from that. I do find it spectacularly revealing that Bolling could not run well ahead of Leslie Byrne. No one has adequately explained that to me.

 
At 12/06/2005 10:42:00 PM, Anonymous Chris said...

Nova Scout: "I do find it spectacularly revealing that Bolling could not run well ahead of Leslie Byrne. No one has adequately explained that to me."

I really don't think anyone can explain it until Bolling runs for something else, you know? There are perfectly reasonable explinations for Bolling both being weak and barely winning against a terrible candidate, or strong and being dragged down by a weak upticket gov, nominee.

 
At 12/06/2005 11:18:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nova Scout, I'd be interested to know how someone is a "career pol" in a part-time legislature.

 
At 12/07/2005 07:59:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I understand Nova Scouts point. Kilgore was by far the largest voter getter four years ago -- in fact he received 200,000 more votes in 2001 then he did in 2005. In 2001, Earley came in fourth in vote getting after Kilgore, Warner, and Kaine. Only a couple of thousand votes less and Earley would have been in fifth place.

What is interesting is that the percentages for Warner in 2001 and Kaine in 2005 are almost the same. After two election cycles one could argue that the Democrats now start with 50% of the vote in the Governors race as long as they run to the right and the Republicans run to the right of right. Interesting future...

 
At 12/07/2005 09:28:00 AM, Anonymous NoVA Scout said...

Good point, Anon 2318, it takes a strange type to do it. Bolling's campaign literature is devoid of references to any other area of activity or accomplishment. I think it's safe to assume that if there were anything mroe to the man, his people wouldn't keep it a secret. Byrne makes reference to some sort of consulting outfit, but my uninformed guess is that that is something less than a booming business and probably something she does to have a place to go to during the day when she's not running for office.

 
At 12/07/2005 02:26:00 PM, Blogger James Young said...

nova scout said "Bolling's campaign literature is devoid of references to any other area of activity or accomplishment. I think it's safe to assume that if there were anything mroe to the man, his people wouldn't keep it a secret."

Aside from the fact that these comments come from someone who cowers in pseudonymity, let us not forget that a man so "devoid ... of activity or accomplishment" still managed to beat Chairman Sean. What does such a result tell us?

 
At 12/07/2005 04:01:00 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said...

Well perhaps Chairman Sean would have fared better had his campaign been more than "vote for me b/c I am from NOVA".
Regionalism only helps the candidate, not the ticket.
See Virginia Beach for proof.

 
At 12/07/2005 05:11:00 PM, Anonymous Adam said...

I was an early on supporter for Connaughton. I liked the fact that he sent campaign staffers to Smyth County several times. This showed that he was concerned about every locality.

However, as time went on I just didn't like the way his campaign was being conducted. I do agree with gophokie's point above about the "Vote for me because I am from NOVA" statement. This was part of the reason that I then supported Bolling.

 
At 12/07/2005 07:43:00 PM, Anonymous NOVA Scout said...

Quite right James. The GOP primary voters will have to do much better in the future. The primary vote tells us a lot about the sophistication, credulousness and discernment of a considerable segment of the GOP primary voting core. There were a large number who uncritically bought into the vapid inanity of Bolling's attacks, who were seduced by facile labelling and who discounted Bolling's rather limited resume as not particularly important. It weakened the GOP offering considerably. Thank God for Leslie Byrne. Without her, we'd be 323 votes from a clean sweep.

Re the NoVa angle, while I think it would have helped the Party to have had a strong candidate from Northern Virginia, Connaughton's campaign did not emphasize that point (perhaps mistakenly). The thrust of his campaign was focus on spending, fiscal discipline, transportation and education. The thrust of Bolling's campaign (at least judging by the direct mail I received in vast quantites and Bolling's statements at GOP gatherings) was: 1) I'm a true conservative and Connaughton's a phony conservative (or even a liberal) 2. I want to help Jerry Kilgore lead this state; 3) I'm against taxes, 4) Connaughton's for taxes. That was enough this year. Strangely enough, some people bought into that without even blinking. In the future we'll have to get some substance into the choice of candidates.

 
At 12/07/2005 07:50:00 PM, Anonymous NoVA Scout said...

PS: James - You're chasing me out of all my hiding places: First I was cowering in anonymity, now pseudonymity. Soon there will be no place left to cower. I have to go overseas next week, perhaps someone will let me cower there.

 
At 12/07/2005 09:37:00 PM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

France is always a good place for cowering. ;) Just kidding. Have a safe trip, Scout.

 
At 12/08/2005 06:13:00 AM, Anonymous NoVA Scout said...

Thanks, Riley. The food's great at least, although I am not blind to some of the drawbacks (historic and otherwise). In any event, it's hard to really enjoy a good lark's tongue cassoulet when cowering in fear of Mr. Young's righteous anger. I just hope the Good Lord has a strong lock on his lightning bolt locker. Otherwise, I and about 1000 other Republicans would be toast - literally.

 
At 12/08/2005 09:40:00 AM, Blogger James Young said...

nova scout clearly comes from the George Orwell school of historical analysis. How else could he ascribe the term "fiscal discipline" to a politician who increased taxes on his constituents by an average of 50% in five years? Remember to clean out that memory hole regularly, though, nova scout.

I note that it wasn't me who observed Chairman Sean's "vote for me because I'm from NoVA"; that was gophokie and adam, and rightly so.

As to your p.s., nova scout, I make the distinction between those who post anonymously and those who use a consistent pseudonym. The former usually use anonymity to club others with statements to which they are unwilling/afraid to ascribe their names, probably with good reason. At least consistent pseudonymity gives the regular reader something of a record --- albeit limited to comments posted --- by which to judge new comments, and is therefore slightly less contemptible. Of course, for all we know, you're simply a Democrat masquerading as a Republican, particularly since you consistently embrace the irresponsible tax-and-spend policies (i.e., Chairman Sean as a paragon of "fiscal discipline," a claim that can be made only by those who don't pay his bills) and rhetoric ("The primary vote tells us a lot about the sophistication, credulousness and discernment of a considerable segment of the GOP primary voting core. There were a large number who uncritically bought into the vapid inanity of Bolling's attacks, who were seduced by facile labelling and who discounted Bolling's rather limited resume as not particularly important") of the far Left.

However, I will agree with one comment made by nova scout. It would have indeed helped the GOP had the party had a "strong candidate from Northern Virginia." It would have been even better if we had had the opportunity to vote for one in the primary.

 
At 12/08/2005 05:45:00 PM, Anonymous NoVA Scout said...

Oh Jim (may I call you Jim?), really. I've patiently explained to you that your tax rates went down in PW. Check it out. If your overall tax bill went up, it was because the value of your home increased. Most people get this. Run the numbers a few times, put your tax bills end-to-end for the past several years - it will begin to sink in. By your logic, Reagan and W have raised my taxes. (After every GOP tax cut, I get wealthier and pay more taxes. It has never bothered me very much. That's what's supposed to happen when capable conservatives lift the burden of taxation).

Consider this hypothetical: PW has a badly run government, your home value declines (as do those of most of your fellow PWians), a new Chairman pushes through increased tax rates to try to maintain public revenues, but, because of the dramatic loss of value in your home, you pay less in taxes than you did under Connaughton. I assume you'd say that you just got a tax cut. I really doubt that there are many people who believe that the tax effect of a rise in home values is a Connaughton tax increase.

Have at it against ad valorem taxes if your real complaint is that these sorts of taxes attach to unrealized gains. That's a problem, but it's not a problem created by your local supervisors. It's a problem that demands a major tax overhaul by the State government. Any such overhaul must include more reliance on income or other types taxation. Why do I suspect that talk about increased income tax rates wouldn't be hugely popular with James Young? But don't rail against the tax efects of increased housing values, get out there and argue for new taxes to replace the real estate tax. BTW, that was another reason I liked Connaughton. He was willing to discuss this publicly, but it wasn't a discussion that many people seemed to want to have.

Re my Republican political pedigreed, it's fairly solid by any objective measurement. Just to turn the matter around a bit, I confess that I have at times suspected that you are a Democratic mole or sleeper planted long ago (how do they find people so young?) to denigrate and destabilize Republican accomplishments and to deter rational folk from entering the political process under the GOP banner. I don't think it's working to any great extent, but it is a fiendishly clever scheme worthy of a Democratic Karla or some other Le Carre-type. Plant this guy in the CRs, watch them go blooey. Plant him in PW County, watch him turn on the most successful local GOP office holder since, well since we've had a PW County.

If my theory is without substance, then we live in a cruelly random universe where no GOP success goes unpunished.

 
At 12/08/2005 07:17:00 PM, Blogger AWCheney said...

NOVA Scout, I hope you won't be away in France for too long...you will be missed.

 
At 12/09/2005 06:33:00 PM, Anonymous le Nouvel Scout said...

Ah, chere Anke, ze greatest sorrow will be how much I miss ze way evvry post on zees joli blogue, (how you say eet een anglais?), goes poof like a failed souffle when ze commentators begin wiz ze nasty consehrvatif v leeberal nonsense. Uv course, cherie, I will miss you particulierement and also Monsieur Riley who luvs all sings French. Au revoir et bonne annee.

 
At 12/10/2005 12:42:00 AM, Blogger AWCheney said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

 
At 12/10/2005 01:01:00 AM, Blogger AWCheney said...

Le nouvel scout, vous remercier pour ces mots très gentil, mon cher ami.

 
At 12/12/2005 09:43:00 AM, Anonymous NoVA Scout said...

chere aw: merci. Le silence de le quartier "colomniateur" peut-etre nous donne une lecon important: les mots d'amabilite peuvent parer les mots de colere.

 
At 12/12/2005 07:57:00 PM, Blogger AWCheney said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

 
At 12/12/2005 08:02:00 PM, Blogger AWCheney said...

Le Boy-scout de nova, le mots de colère est, malheureusement, aussi souvent une partie de politique lui-même. Ils sont une partie du côté sombre de nature humaine. Je vous ai trouvé souvent pour être une voix de raison dans cette mer de rodomontades. ..a source de dialogue plutôt que diatribe. Mes compliments.

 
At 12/12/2005 08:06:00 PM, Blogger AWCheney said...

Translation:
NOVA Scout, words of anger are, unfortunately, too often a part of politics itself. They are a part of the dark side of human nature. I have often found you to be a voice of reason in this sea of rantings...a source of dialogue rather than diatribe. My compliments.

Now, before you're too impressed with my French, it's definitely not that good. I cheated...I used a translation program. ;-) Have a wonderful time in France!

 
At 12/13/2005 02:25:00 PM, Anonymous nova scout said...

Vive la technologie! We have something in common. I use a translation programme to file comments in English.

 

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