Sunday, January 08, 2006

33rd UPDATED UPDATED

In the 33rd , the firehouse primary will be held over at the new Loudoun County Schools Administration Building in Ashburn at 21000 Education Court, Ashburn, Virginia 20148 on Monday, January 16th between the hours of 11:00 am and 7:00 pm I have also heard there will be no Fairfax location. UPDATE: As a Fairfax resident I am a little spiteful that the primary is way out in Ashburn so I did a little digging and found out why. For obvious personal reasons Supervisor Staton did want Fairfax to have a location, and fought vehemently against it at the recent meeting of the 33rd District Republican meeting. Percentage wise in the recent primary, more people turned out in the Fairfax locations. The Republicans in these precincts would most likely lean more towards Minchew. This is not a good way to start a relationship with us in Fairfax Supervisor. Update #2: I have heard from the Staton campaign, that Mick Staton did not have an "official" role in deciding where the locations were. Supervisor Staton "argued for one site because in my opinion you need to either have one site for the entire district or multiple sites throughout the district".

46 Comments:

At 1/08/2006 06:04:00 PM, Anonymous The Jaded JD said...

I myself would be suspicious of a date and location set for a nomination contest for a special election when neither the incumbent's resignation nor the writ for special election have issued. In fact, I'm a bit suspicious of the legal authority of the Senate District Committee to set a date and location in the absence of the resignation or the writ. There are, after all, statutory constraints on the timing of the nomination contest based on the date of the special election in the writ.

 
At 1/08/2006 06:53:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

While Ashburn may not be the best location, it is important to have one location for voting. If you have a Loudoun and Fairfax location, it makes it more difficult to ensure that individuals don't cast more than one vote. Maybe one day, precinct locations will become electronic, where you can simply check in to vote and be logged in electronically that you have voted.

 
At 1/08/2006 06:57:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

anon-

that is not the reason for one voting location.

It was for personal gain.

 
At 1/08/2006 08:06:00 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Democrats have multiple locations all the time. To prevent multiple voting all you have to do is make the Loudoun site home to the Loudoun voters, and Fairfax to the Fairfax voters. Anyone who shows up at the wrong place can cast a conditional ballot that is counted that night if they didn't vote at their correct polling place. If they did, it's seperate and thrown out.

In short, anyone who argues that less locations is needed to ensure only one ballot is cast, is full of shit.

 
At 1/08/2006 08:46:00 PM, Anonymous 10th District Conservative said...

come, come, ya'll...

There's nothing untoward about the 33rd process.

The 33rd is a small area geographically. There shouldn't be a problem for voters to get from one end of it to the other in the 8 hours allowed for polling, if necessary. The committee chose a central location in the district.

80% of the precincts are in Loudoun, 20% in Fairfax. I'd say they made a reasonable effort to accomodate all voters (these special processes are not easy to find volunteer staffing for). The vote on the LD comm is controlled by the Loudoun representative (80%) who is the very honorable clerk of court and a personal friend of Minchew's. Why would he vote to skew the process?

Jaded JD, the incumbent has resigned but his resignation is not yet effective. The writ hasn't been issued, true, but the law specifies that the party must have completed it's nomination 5 days after the issuance of the writ. If you want to complain about "unfair" try putting together an entire process, including securing a location, finding volunteers and providing for the security of ballots in 5 days. It's impossible. The LD committee would have to make the choice of candidate without the grassroots (the way the D's did in the 33rd). That would be subject to all sorts of accusations.

 
At 1/08/2006 09:03:00 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

If the Republican Party has trouble getting enough volunteers to staff 2 polling places, then they have problems bigger than either candidate can overcome.

 
At 1/08/2006 09:13:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

10th district conservative-

Is this the line you all are going to play?

It's complete BS.

Staton is smart..he knew if Fairfax was involved it would help Minchew.

I would not call Ashburn a central location either...

It's roughly 30 minutes from my house, and that's not in traffic.

Minchew wanted what was fair..two locations one in Fairfax, one in Loudoun.

This was manipulated

 
At 1/08/2006 09:14:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

pssst!!!!! Eric Lundberg yelled at Mick Staton about this!!!!!

 
At 1/08/2006 09:15:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

anon 9:14-

I am not sure why Eric Lundberg would even care about this issue..

 
At 1/08/2006 10:37:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Does anyone know when the special election will be?

 
At 1/08/2006 10:39:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well Eric Lundberg is up for re-election for FCRC Chairman this year. Maybe he thinks building a coalition with Minchew will help him?

 
At 1/08/2006 11:01:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

Isn't this post on when the election is?

 
At 1/09/2006 07:14:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

An interesting election will soon take place in northern Virginia to replace Senator Bill Mims who is leaving the Senate to take a position in the Attorney General’s office. This race is interesting as an indicator of what we might expect from the all-important campaign season culminating in November 2007 in which all 140 members of the Virginia General Assembly will be up for re-election.



It could not have possibly escaped the notice of even a casual observer that the Republican Party of Virginia is badly divided right now. The division takes place in terms of the constituency served and there are two competing constituencies. One of these groups is comprised of the big money players, the people who disproportionately fund campaigns because their business interests and personal wealth are dependent on access to public funds. The rank and file conservative grassroots compose the second group.



While any candidate would like to have both the money and the grassroots, this is difficult because the goals of the two groups are so dissimilar. To put it simply, the monied players have a self-interest that requires government to grow, public spending to increase, and taxes to go up. The conservative grassroots’ self-interest usually regards the family – to be able to take the family on vacation next year, to put braces on the daughter’s teeth, to save money for the son who will leave for college in a couple of years. It is against the self-interest of the people who write the $25 and $50 checks to the Republican Party for the government to grow with each session of the General Assembly. They scoff at the idea that new or higher taxes are taken out of the family’s disposable income, because they know that most families do not have disposable income.



Previously, I wrote that it was difficult for candidates to garner the support of both constituencies, but that is not to say they don’t try. No candidate runs for office pledging to prioritize the desires of the special interests over those of Virginia’s families. All Republican candidates will dutifully pay lip service to limited government, lower taxes, and protecting private property. Unfortunately, almost half of those Republican candidates dance the campaign dance while giving a wink and a nod to the developers, the construction industry, or one of the other players who is willing to underwrite a campaign now to ensure that government money keeps flowing his way tomorrow.



The two candidates vying to replace Senator Mims are Mick Staton and Randy Minchew. Mick Staton serves on the Board of Supervisors in Loudoun County where his voting record has defined him as a fiscal conservative. With a Masters degree in public administration, he knows how to read budgets and financials, and he has put the required time and effort in the job to keep from falling into the trap of becoming a pawn of the county administration staff or the local education establishment. Mr. Staton has led the effort in Loudoun to keep property taxes low. He is the son of the former Republican congressman from West Virginia, Mick Staton, Sr. He is the son-in-law of former Delegate Dick Black.



Randy Minchew is the chairman of the Loudoun County Republican Committee. In 2002 he publicly supported the passage of the regional sales tax referendum – a measure that failed at the ballot box 55%-45%. Mr. Minchew in recent years has made financial contributions to a number of Democrats and Democrat-leaning organizations: Senator Richard L. Saslaw ($500), Senator Janet D. Howell ($125), Delegate Robert D. Hull ($600), the Virginia Senate Democrat Caucus ($500), and Citizens for Better Transportation ($500). [Source: www.vpap.org]



Courthouse Corner Associates, for which Mr. Minchew serves as the registered agent, also contributed $1,000 to the Leadership for Virginia PAC which in turn bundled that donation with 46 others totaling more than $500,000. That money was then distributed to both Republican and Democrat candidates including Democrat Hilda Barg, who lost to Delegate Jeff Frederick in last November’s election; Republican Preston Bryant, who recently resigned from the General Assembly to take a position in Governor Kaine’s administration; Delegate Chuck Caputo, who defeated Republican Chris Craddock for the House of Delegates; Democrat David Marsden, who defeated Republican Michael Golden for the House of Delegates; Delegate Paula Miller, a Democrat; Delegate David Poisson, who defeated Republican Dick Black in a House of Delegates race; Delegate Stephen Shannon, a Democrat; and Delegate Katherine Waddell, who defeated Republican Brad Marrs in a House of Delegates race. [Source: www.vpap.org]



Interested observers would do well to monitor the race between Messrs. Minchew and Staton. It could be a harbinger of what we can expect in November 2007, and that election will determine where our state government will place its priorities, and what constituency will win its favor, for many years to come.

 
At 1/09/2006 08:05:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dear Friend:



The time and place for the Republican Primary for the 33rd District Special Election has been set. Voting will take place on January 16th between the hours of 11:00 AM and 7:00 PM at the Loudoun County Public Schools Administration Building. Directions to the site are available on my website at www.MickStaton.com.



With the tough losses we experienced in Loudoun County in November, I cannot stress the importance of retaining control of this seat. We must ensure that we continue to be represented by someone who steadfastly upholds the values and principles of the Republican Party. That’s why I’m running to be the next Senator for the 33rd District.



Since I announced my candidacy, I have been honored by the endorsements of many key leaders in the Republican Party, including:



Senator Ken Cuccinelli (R-37)

Senator Steve Martin (R-11)

Senator Steve Newman (R-23)

Senator Mark Obenshain (R-26)

Senator Jay O'Brien (R-39)

Delegate Dick Black (R-32)

Delegate Tim Hugo (R-40)

Delegate Mark Cole (R-88)

Delegate Kirk Cox (R-66)

Delegate Jeff Frederick (R-52)

Delegate Tom Gear (R-91)

Delegate Robert Hurt (R-16)

Delegate Bill Janis (R-56)

Delegate Scott Lingamfelter (R-31)

Delegate Robert Marshall (R-13)

Delegate Melanie Rapp (R-96)

Delegate Lee Ware (R-65)


Delegate John Welch (R-21)

Delegate Tommy Wright (R-61)

Delegate Sam Nixon (R-27)

Delegate Clay Athey (R-18)

Supervisor Eugene Delgaudio

Supervisor Steve Snow

Supervisor Bruce Tulloch

Supervisor Lori Waters

School Board member Joseph Guzman

Scholl Board Member Steve Hunt

Mychele Brickner, Former Fairfax School Brd

Mark Tate, former Vice Mayor of Middleburg

Patricia Phillips*, Concerned Women for America

Morton Blackwell, Leadership Institute

Pat McSweeney, Former RPV Chairman

Mark Mix*, National Right to Work

Larry Pratt*, GOA








I have the experience to be an effective leader in Richmond. My education, career experience, and years of service to the party have prepared me to hit the ground running. My leadership on the Board of Supervisors has given me an intimate knowledge of the needs of our county and makes me the ideal advocate in Richmond.



I’m a fiscal conservative with a record of opposing higher taxes. I fought against the sales tax referendum in 2002, and worked to achieve lower real property tax rates as a member of the Board of Supervisors.



I am a social conservative who steadfastly upholds pro-life, pro-family values. As a Senator, I will join with Senator Cuccinelli, Senator O’Brien, and the Conservative Caucus in making sure that our commitment to upholding our shared values and protecting unborn children and traditional marriage is carried on.



I am asking you to join me in proving to the Democrats that Republicans are still the best party to lead this district. I have the campaign experience, experience in office, the organization, and the funding in place to run this special election and I am ready to go. I’m asking for your support and for your vote.





Sincerely,



Mick Staton

 
At 1/09/2006 08:55:00 AM, Blogger nova_middle_man said...

very appreciative of the information from the Staton campaign... would like to here from the Minchew campaign.

 
At 1/09/2006 09:04:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Staton is a fraud. He increased my property taxes by $700 this year. I can't wait to vote against him

 
At 1/09/2006 09:18:00 AM, Blogger MR JMS said...

Apparently our blog is Letter to the Editor time now.

Point out that the first letter about the "BIG MONEY Republicans" sjould take a look at VPAP and notice that both "sides" of the GOP have their money backers. Most of the VCAP folks cut over $100,000 this past year a piece.

 
At 1/09/2006 11:06:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

10th District Conservative - the incumbent has not resigned. If he had, the governor would call the special election, even if the resignation wasn't effective until after session began. See the statute at 24.2-216.

 
At 1/09/2006 11:34:00 AM, Blogger MR JMS said...

Wrong.

The purpose of resigning on the date he did was so the Senate controlled the process and not the Governor.

 
At 1/09/2006 11:35:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Minchew is way too liberal for Loudoun... I think this is going to be a cakewalk for the solid conservative candidate- Mick Staton.

It's about time the GOP fielded such qualified and dedicated conservatives rather than self-aggrandizing opportunists.

 
At 1/09/2006 11:44:00 AM, Blogger mitch's wife said...

"Minchew is way too liberal for Loudoun..."

But Poisson wasn't too liberal? Please spare us.

Staton may win the nomination (unfortuantely) but if he does, this will be one more seat for the Democrats.

 
At 1/09/2006 12:06:00 PM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

I think that either Mick or Randy can win this seat, whichever one is nominated. Of course, all factions of the party have to unite behind the nominee in order to be successful. Both Mick and Randy are good guys and they should set the tone for the rest of the party by pledging to support the other if he is nominated.

 
At 1/09/2006 12:08:00 PM, Blogger Involved said...

Hopefully, we'll have enough pissed-off Republicans in the 33rd, that this will be a slam-dunk for Staton, once he's nominated.

 
At 1/09/2006 12:21:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

JMS - that's my point - Mims hasn't resigned at all. If he had, the governor would call the special election, even if the effective date were in the future. Read the statute.

All Mims has done is announce his intention to resign on some future date. He hasn't resigned yet.

 
At 1/09/2006 01:21:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

We know the time of the 33rd.

Good to hear from Supervisor Staton..Mr.Minchew is going to do an interview with us as well.

This race will be close.

 
At 1/09/2006 02:33:00 PM, Anonymous getagrip said...

A cakewalk for the man who deliberately tied himself to Dick Black, whose campaign manager said point-blank that supporting Staton will be doing a huge favor for Dick Black? Are you kidding?

What did I miss? Did the Staton campaign retract that statement?

Involved, I think it was the pissed off Republicans who finally got fed up with Black and said no more. They ain't gonna vote for Black junior either.

 
At 1/09/2006 02:59:00 PM, Blogger Involved said...

Getagrip,

I'm gonna have to disagree with you, there. I think that you'll see some republican backlash due to the Democrat gains we've recently seen.

I guess we'll know which of us is right, by the end of the month!

 
At 1/09/2006 08:44:00 PM, Anonymous getagrip said...

You may be right. But are they pissed off because they didn't manage to get to the polls to vote for Black (unlikely, in my estimation), or are they pissed off at losing the seat to a Democrat because there was never a primary opponent to Black?

Two very different lessons there.

 
At 1/09/2006 10:39:00 PM, Blogger Involved said...

I'd go with the first option. Republicans came out in low numbers, thoughout the state. Those in the 33rd are going to want to do something to make up for that.

Unlike you liberals, getagrip, not everyone is upset that Black was in office. He's a great guy, and I hope that he comes back to run again!

 
At 1/10/2006 03:14:00 PM, Blogger blight pesticide said...

The Loudoun Republican party (LRP) is smoking weed if they think a re-incarnated version of Black is going to bring back the good ole days.

Mick may be a "nice guy" but he hasn't put the time in to have a foundation of experience necessary to be an effective senator.

In fact, since he doesn't have a record, his only oar in the water is to pull on his connection to the artifact, Dick Black.

A Staton candidacy is dead on arrival. He'll be thrashed up by the Dems and the Republican swing vote.

The LRP needs to "internally" redefine itself in this election and move away from the Black Brigade and select Minchew to lead them. This will "truly" show voters the LRP has moved closer to things that really matter, not some wacked out social agenda, that promotes exclusion.

 
At 1/10/2006 03:53:00 PM, Anonymous getagrip said...

So believing in individual liberty and small government that keeps its big fat nose out of my family life makes me a "liberal"?

That was to be expected, I suppose.

 
At 1/10/2006 05:02:00 PM, Blogger Involved said...

Staton's the best chance that Republicans have in this district.

In a special election it's all about getting out your base of supporters. The Republican base is CONSEREVATIVES.

In these types of elections the squishy Republicans won't vote, and neither will squishy Dems. With voter turn-out being low, we need a Conservative like Staton who will be able to activate our base! Otherwise, we'd just be handing this election to the Dems.

 
At 1/10/2006 08:16:00 PM, Blogger blight pesticide said...

Involved,

Respectfully...the strategy of sneaking Mick into office IS a huge problem for the Loudoun County Republican party.

If Mick wins, within the confines of your theory, that being "normal people don't vote in special elections", what do you think will eventually happen during a general election?

Your advise is a short term recipe for a long term disaster.

The Black Brigade influence over Loudoun is over. The Republican party has a chance to seize the agenda and once again lead this County. If they hide behind a bunch of "motivated" BBers in a special election, the party will be easy fodder for every other election.

Republicans need to take charge, lead with their heart, PUBLICALLY distance themselves from BBs and re-establish the leadership position, empowered by real concrete issues, not radical exclusionism.

 
At 1/10/2006 08:54:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Funny how this wasn't true with the turnout tonight in the 23rd (higher than in the General):

In these types of elections the squishy Republicans won't vote, and neither will squishy Dems.

 
At 1/11/2006 06:53:00 PM, Blogger Involved said...

Anon,

The 23rd is a highly unusual case. Special elections rarely have such a high voter turn-out. NLS seems to attribute this to the exceptional lists made by Kaine's team, and the poor lists made by Kilgore's. If this is the case, we could be in real trouble in this district, regardless of the Republican candidate who is elected on Monday.

Blight, as I'm sure you know, it is harder to unseat an incumbent than it is to run for an open seat. With years of votes under their belts, whoever wins this election will be in a good position to win re-election in a couple years.

 
At 1/12/2006 12:41:00 AM, Blogger blight pesticide said...

Involved,

Black was an incumbent. I'd say the code has been broken.

 
At 1/12/2006 12:16:00 PM, Blogger Involved said...

Blight,

As I mentioned before, Black also didn't walk his district, and his opponent ran an excellent campaign when it came to reaching out to new voters in the district.

You need to take a government class if you honestly think that incumbents have as hard a time running for office as challengers do. On average, incumbents typically have better name ID, better volunteer networks already in place, and they have the ability to raise more money.

This certainly isn’t always the case… but it’s true as a general rule.

 
At 1/12/2006 02:07:00 PM, Blogger blight pesticide said...

Involved,

I took your original comment about Black "not walking the district" comically.

The reason he didn't walk is because he constantly got doors slammed in his face. (Just my impression) He did himself a favor by hiding his mug.

Black totally pulled a turtle on this last election, and had hoped his incumbency would pull him through. It didn't work.

There is leverage for incumbents but it isn't as solidifying as you state. Incumbency only works if you know how to use it.

Look at the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors. That thing turns over at a rate of 66% each election. (my recollection) Is that enough of a history lesson to show how incumbency works in this region.

Your theory is old school. A region like this with a massive influx of new voters, and stale priorities for elected officials is the issue. Incumbency, in this dynamic, CAN become an anchor, not a mae west.

All this is semantics. Black lost because his message doesn't resonate anymore. People want action not grand standing. The electorate tossed his approach out, and the sooner Republicans figure that out, the quicker we can start getting back to real conservative values.

Oh while I am at it. I can guarantee you Minchew won't be endorsing Dick Black for a mid-term Board of Supervisors appointment. That's a scary enough reason by itself to vote for someone other than Mick.

 
At 1/13/2006 10:08:00 AM, Blogger Involved said...

Blight,

Your 'impression' of people slamming the door on Black, is a perfect example of how you moderates don't understand why people care about moral values and/or God.

Loudoun has a strong church community, and a huge base of value-driven voters. Moderates do a great job of acting like Republicans, and ignoring the values that moral voters cherish.

Education, Traffic, etc. are important issues that all politicians in NoVa need to pay attention to... however, if you get to work earlier at the cost of having a heavy-taxing morally corrupt government, what are you really gaining?

This is the part that is just inconceivable to you kids, and it would be funny if it weren't so sad.

Black's message is fine... but when you fail to broadcast it to your newest residents, it can cause you trouble. It also doesn't help when you have a moderate-leaning republican Governor running for office at the same time.

Short-term primaries like this can go either way. It all comes out to who does a better job at getting their people to the polls. However, if nominated, Minchew needs to follow Staton's lead and connect with moral-driven voters if he hopes to win in the special election.

 
At 1/13/2006 10:13:00 AM, Blogger blight pesticide said...

Here's an interesting dialog reported in the Loudoun Connection on the selection of one location for the canvas. Fairfax Republicans -- beware of Mick.

"Lattanzi (Minchew's Campaign Manager) said a location in Fairfax would be fair because those voters are used to voting in Fairfax County. A single, centralized, location in Loudoun may leave the Fairfax voters out of the process.

"We would have preferred a polling location in Fairfax as well," said Lattanzi.

Staton disagreed. He said if there is one location in Fairfax, there would have to be at least four in Loudoun, to match the representation of the counties in the district. He said the 33rd District is one district, and county lines should not play a role in determining the polling locations. One location in each, he said, would disenfranchise the voters in Loudoun."

I guess that means Micky will work for the Fairfax side of the district one fifth of the time.

If Staton/Black wins we may all need a fifth!

 
At 1/13/2006 12:10:00 PM, Blogger blight pesticide said...

Involved,

Don't preach to me, it's insulting.

I am not sure where you go to church, but where I got to church there are both Democrats and Republicans.

Your type of tired politics, old man, of exclusionism was what was reflected in Black's flame out. Not some self imposed "death penalty" gov candidate, or some lack of communication to new voters.

Rant over...I apologize to the audience. Just don't like being called a kid, or the tone of Involved's post.

Involved I submit your views are polluting the inevitable evolution of the Republican party. I'd much rather be discussing differences I have with Democrats.

 
At 1/13/2006 01:15:00 PM, Blogger Involved said...

Blight,

If you had more in common with true republican principles, it might be easier for you to argue with Democrats. As of yet, it looks as if you could be arguing on their behalf for a majority of your postings... in my humble opinion.

We've never done a political poll in our church... however since I go to the largest church in Loudoun, which is steadfast in its support of unborn children and conservative values, and is located in the middle of the 33rd, I'd say that I've got some idea about what I'm talking about.

You're self-described “rants” that describe your bias against strong Christians being elected to office aside, I know Black and Staton have a lot of support in Loudoun.

That said, this election will be about who can get the most people to the polls on Monday. People can vote for moderate Minchew (who has supporters like you, who love to bash Republicans who value "life" and "morals") or Conservative Staton (who also has the support of NoVa's God-fearing conservatives).

 
At 1/13/2006 02:29:00 PM, Blogger blight pesticide said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

 
At 1/13/2006 05:22:00 PM, Blogger blight pesticide said...

Involved,

ARe your incorrect assumptions about my politics, religious conviction, social views, and motives the real issue here? I don't think so, stop diverting from the real issues.

Let's stick to something of more immediate interest, that of Mr. Staton and his inseparable attachment to the losing incumbent candidate Black.

There's a lot of Staton information and discussion for you to ponder at: http://getblackout.blogspot.com/

 
At 1/13/2006 05:44:00 PM, Blogger Involved said...

Blight,

You may have a bad memory, and you may be a fan of revisionist history as well... but I'd expect that you have the ability to scroll up and read your own postings.

You got us on this topic with your attacks of Staton being a "re-incarnated version of Black" and commenting on "the Black Brigade influence over Loudoun".

Ironically you also finish your last posting with.... AN ATTACK AGAINST DICK BLACK! Hilarious!

I'd suggest that you follow your own advice about staying on message if you plan on attacking others for replying to your tangents; and if you choose to attack a family-values driven candidate, then your opposition to these values become fair-game.

I do appreciate the connections you've been making between Black and Staton, though. If everyone who voted for Black turns around and votes for Staton, then he is almost assured victory on Monday!

 
At 1/14/2006 12:33:00 AM, Blogger blight pesticide said...

Involved,

Black was put down by the hands of the voters.

If you had followed the link, you would of seen that it is content about Staton not Black.

I am praying you changed your name from involved to evolved. There's hope you just need to get out into the light a little more.

 

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