Tuesday, January 31, 2006

Franklin Passes 6%

With over 185 voters so far..Franklin Precinct has just passed 6% voter turn out. I am hearing projected turnouts of 10-15%. With this, I head into D.C. and will post when I get there.


At 1/31/2006 01:19:00 PM, Blogger valleyconservative05 said...

If true, this is much lower than I expected which by the way is probably great news for Staton.

At 1/31/2006 01:48:00 PM, Anonymous Freddie said...

I don't know enough about the precints. Is the turnout higher or lower in the more Republican precincts?

At 1/31/2006 02:12:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

valleyconservative05 --

Here's a cunundrum to ponder while we await the returns.

Conventional wisdom has always held a low turnout favors Republicans. The "lazy voters" as Republicans say, tend to be part of the Democrat base. If they don't bother to turn out, the dependable Republican voters shall carry the day.

However, consider that logic in an area where the majority are socially conservative Republican types -- the typical Loudoun County voter. Doesn't a low voter turnout in that population sample increase the value of the fringe voters and help the Democrat?

Consider the cunundrum of the "loss column factor" in the AL West of a decade or so ago. (I'm talkin' baseball). Down the pennant stretch, baseball fans watch the standings with one eye on the "loss column" -- the importance being if all teams have not played an equal number of games, the relative number of losses is more important than their actual standing because as pennant contenders approach 162 games, the majority of their remaining games will be wins and therefore it will be harder to make up games in the loss column.

However, in 1994, the relatively weak AL West had no team with a winning record. Thus, there was greater probablility that each team would achieve more losses than wins in the remainder of the schedule. So, in this case, would it be better to be behind in the loss column? With the Texas Rangers leading the Division and 10 games below .500 and Oakland and Seattle one game behind in the loss column..... we'll nver know.

Players Union called a strike and the season was cancelled.

Vote Republican. Crush Labor.

At 1/31/2006 03:04:00 PM, Blogger valleyconservative05 said...

I know the social conservatives are in a frenzy over Staton just because he is considered "one of them". That being said, these people are guaranteed voters. They are excited about the prospects of replacing Del. Black with a state Senator. They are also a very motivated group right now. These folks are still upset about the Nov. fiasco in Loudon. This group is really pumped up and excited right now. Can Herring generate the same excitement within his group? I honestly don't know the answer. For now, I will hold to my theory that low turnout would probably benefit Staton.

At 1/31/2006 03:34:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just don't underestimate the extent to which the Democratic base is also fired up right now because they know they can win.

And, if special election patterns continue (Democrats running 5-8% ahead of Kaine), Staton will get crushed.

And if TC's post about turnout in Selden's Landing is correct, Mick should be really worried, as that was the best precinct for both Kaine and Poisson in Ashburn. And the turnout there is 4 times higher than in Mick's district?

Herring 58-Staton 42.

At 1/31/2006 03:35:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

How is turnout in Leesburg, home of Mark Herring

At 1/31/2006 03:42:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

Those were taken at different times.

At 1/31/2006 10:08:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is "anonymous" who posted the "loss column" cunundrum above.

I guess the low turnout helps the Dems theory looks pretty good. And, with these numbers, the last place California Angels would have cruised to the pennant had they finished the '94 season.


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