Friday, January 20, 2006

Generic GOPer within 2 pts. of Hillary in match-up

The Hotline has this poll that matches McCain against Hillary, McCain against a generic Dem, and Hillary against a generic GOPer. The results: McCain defeats Hillary 52%-36% in the hypothetical match-up among registered voters. McCain drops to 36% vs. 29% for a generic Dem. Hillary leads a generic GOPer by 41% to 39%. Follow the above link to the poll for the internals. I'd say this bodes well for Sen. Allen in both the GOP primary and the General Election.


At 1/20/2006 02:19:00 PM, Anonymous NoVA Scout said...


It doesn't surprise me that McCain does better generally against HRC. What is interesting is that she almost seems to gfive him more strength among Democrats (when compared to the MacCain v. Generic Dem poll). It may be that Hilary has a kind of (negative) polarizing effect, even among Democrats.

I have trouble carrying these data forward to Allen's race. How did you do that?

At 1/20/2006 03:17:00 PM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

First, Allen would start with a base of 39% vs. Hillary's 41% in a General Election.

Second, GOPers flock to McCain only when he's matched head to head against Hillary. Without that, he loses quite a bit of GOP support which means the nomination isn't his for the asking and if primary voters rally around one anti-McCain candidate, McCain can be denied the nomination. If Allen is the main alternative, he'll benefit.

At 1/20/2006 04:25:00 PM, Blogger Mitch Cumstein said...

I think what this really says is, if Republicans want to retain the White House, we'd better nominate John McCain. The fact that McCain crushes Hillary while a generic GOPer actually trails her should speak volumes.

With all that has happened over the last five years, both in Congress and the Executive branch, the GOP needs someone who a) shows demonstrable integrity and b) can appeal to a broader electorate than just hardcore conservatives. McCain can do that, Allen, not so much.

Again, it's about winning the war, not just the battle. Can Allen beat Hillary? Yeah, probably. If Warner gets the nomination, though, forget it. McCain can beat Warner, Allen can't. Period.

At 1/20/2006 04:44:00 PM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

McCain only has a 7 point lead on a generic Dem and he starts with a base of 36%. Unknown GOPer starts with a 39% base against Hillary.

If McCain is nominated, expect Keating 5 to be resurrected. Dems are salivating over a McCain candidacy.

At 1/20/2006 05:10:00 PM, Anonymous NOVA Scout said...

Riley: sorry. I get it. I was thinking about the Allen Senate race - you were referring to the Presidential race.

At 1/20/2006 05:11:00 PM, Blogger Mitch Cumstein said...

Keating 5?!

GWB won two Presidential elections. Somehow I think his closet was/is a little more crowded than McCain's. If that's the best the Dems (or primary opponents) can come up with, forgive me if I'm not all that concerned.

At 1/20/2006 05:22:00 PM, Blogger Willis said...

You are scum, Riley.

At 1/20/2006 08:46:00 PM, Blogger mitch's wife said...

Mitch, I have to disagree with your assumption that Allen cannot beat Warner in a presidential general election. I would posit that George Allen may be the ONLY Republican who can beat Mark Warner in the Electoral College.

George Bush got 286 electoral votes and John Kerry got 252 electoral votes. One has to assume that if Warner were on the ballot and Allen were not, that Warner would carry Virginia. If Warner were then to carry every state that Kerry carried, plus Virginia, he would get 263 electoral votes, leaving 275. At that point, all Warner would have to do is carry New Mexico, and he's the 44th president of the United States. He wouldn't NEED Ohio.

If politics in this country are as divided in two and half years as they are know, the Republican Presidential nominee MUST carry Virginia and Allen is the only man who can beat Warner here.

At 1/20/2006 09:27:00 PM, Blogger Mitch Cumstein said...


The point about Virginia is well taken. Allen is probably the only GOP candidate who could beat Warner here. The problem is, I don't think Allen could beat him in some of the other States that Bush carried, such as Ohio and Florida.

At 1/20/2006 09:49:00 PM, Blogger Willis said...

I wouldn't worry, mitch. Your party leadership will get the votes, whether they are there or not.

At 1/27/2006 08:51:00 AM, Blogger Malott said...

I like Allen very much.

Having the press in your pocket can change minds, but this poll looks promising... added to the fact that Hillary is definitely the front-runner... the wacky Dem base is hot for her and won't be deterred by bad numbers.

On my blogpage I ask if she is the worst Dem we could elect. I would be interested in your opinion.


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