Wednesday, January 04, 2006

It's Not Just Me

American University held a conference on campaign management yesterday. The keynote speaker was Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report and a well known Republican pollster. Cook got asked a question on why Republicans lost in Virginia. His answer: 1)Mark Warner's High Approval Ratings 2)George Bush with a 40% Approval Rating in Virginia(WHO CAMPAINGED WITH KILGORE!) 3) "Virginia Republican Party Needs to Go Back to the Drawing Board, the recipe of trying to lose NOVA, Tidewater, and Richmond by the lowest percentages and run up the score in rural Virginia DOES NOT WORK ANYMORE. The population centers of NOVA and Tidewater have grown so dramatically,you can not win with the rural vote anymore. ... AND YET their new Lieutenant Governor, who presumably would be their nominee for governor 3 and a half or 4 years from know..looks like its exactly the same thing" Mr.Cook goes on to state:"If I was a Republican in Virginia, here is the most depressing result. You had someone who had been a one term member of Congress from NOVA, Leslie Byrne...and by Virginia, or Southern..or just about any standards she was pretty liberal..I mean like real liberal..she got 48% of the vote statewide in Virginia" He says there are two conclusions from this: 1)48% of the People voted for her just because she was a Democrat=The good scenario 2)They knew she was very liberal Democrat and STILL voted for her=The bad scenario Check out the conference here..The Talk on NOVA begins around 45:30. It's good to hear it's not just a few Virginia Republicans who feel this way.


At 1/05/2006 06:18:00 AM, Blogger gopkdh said...

If Bolling runs for Governor and hes the nominee we have problems

At 1/05/2006 07:36:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ummm...maybe that's why so many of us were supporting Connaughton

At 1/05/2006 09:07:00 AM, Blogger Mitch Cumstein said...

If Bolling is the nominee, his only chance would be if the Dems are crazy enough to put up Leslie Byrne to run against him. Even then, I'm not so sure. The GOP absolutely must start looking at these races with an eye toward winning general elections and not simply trying to through out the most conservative candidates it can find.

At 1/05/2006 10:19:00 AM, Anonymous NOVA Scout said...

We seem to waste so much energy trying to decide who is "conservative" (even though there isn't a dime's worth of difference on the usual liberal/conservative markers between people like Bolling and Connaughton)that I would like to use this fine blog to make what should be known as "Scout's Modest Proposal" (or "SMP" for ease of reference). I think this will work and change all our lives.

The RPV is a hurtin' animal financially (and a lot of other ways). Why don't we let them auction off the rights to the word "conservative"to either the Bolling or Connaughton "wings" of the Party. It doesn't really make any difference who gets the rights - the wing that doesn't can find another word. But by giving a protectable, iron-clad monopoly on the term to one faction or another, then the campaings can be about real issues and substance and these silly scrums over very slight differences would cease. The wing that bought the rights would probably have something of an advantage in the primaries, but would be at a disadvantage in the general elections, so both wings would gain something from the deal. The coffers of the RPV would be built up a bit and the rights could be re-auctioned every four years. If people object that this shouldn't be about money, we could have a coin-toss.

The beauty of this, however simplistic it is, is that the GOP in Virginia will be much stronger, the energy wasted in attacking our own can be outward directed against the Democrats, and we may win some elections.

At 1/05/2006 10:40:00 AM, Blogger Waltzing Matilda said...

I would like to know what one has to do to be given the all-important moniker of "conservative enough." From what I've seen, being pro-life doesn't make one conservative, cutting tax rates doesn't make one conservative (but ironically you can leave tax rates alone while assessments rise and you are considered conservative), slowing the growth of government doesn't make one conservative (but once again irony rears its ugly head because you can be a true conservative and double the size of government). From watching the races around the state, to be a TRUE AND WORTHY conservative you must ignore transportation, education and the economy. Pretty much you should have no message at all except calling others liberals or RINOs and randomly without reason yell something about abortion. You should scream about "the largest tax increase in Virginia history," but don't offer to try to roll it back and do take credit for things on which the money is spend. To sum it up, to be a true conservative you need to grow government, be ineffective and call people names.

Now I am really confused as to why the Republicans are in the decline. With a non-message like that, how could they lose?

At 1/05/2006 11:37:00 AM, Blogger GOPHokie said...

That is a great idea Scout.
As to Bolling v Connaughton, until Chairman Sean can craft a message beyond "vote for me b/c I will win NOVA" while getting endorsed by Russ Potts and the Washington Post, he will always lose nomination contests in the statewide races.

At 1/05/2006 12:06:00 PM, Anonymous NoVA Scout said...

GOPHokie: I took hiw message to be "vote for me because I am a conservative candidate who has a proven record of effective governance in a demanding high-growth environment. I also have life experiences (law practice, military service) that broaden one's knoweldge and effectiveness in serving the varied needs of a fast-changing, internationally connected state. BTW, I can win in Northern virginia and provide balance ot a ticket that threatens to be heavy on Richmond insiders."

That wasn't the message the primary voters wanted last time. Maybe next time.

At 1/05/2006 12:19:00 PM, Blogger Involved said...

Nova Scout,

It's not that "that wasn't the message the primary voters wanted last time."

It's just that we couldn't hear the rest of Sean's message beyond "I'm a conservative..." because we were all laughing too hard!

At 1/05/2006 01:26:00 PM, Anonymous NoVA Scout said...

Involved: See Scout's Modest Proposal in the other thread. If you want monopoly use of the term "conservative", you have to pay for it. Until you do, you don't get to be the arbiter of who's conservative and who isn't.

At 1/05/2006 01:26:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Or for those of us who like to think hard about things:
Option 3: Kilgore dragged everyone else down... including the LG candidate.

At 1/05/2006 01:43:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

Involved-For a year long campaign..when most endorsements were already made..

Connaughton won over 40% of the vote..and carried Fairfax handidly..thousands and thousands of voted over Bolling.

Imagine what could have happened in 4 years..

The point is not Connaughton, or Bolling..but that Republicans need to rethink whats going on

At 1/05/2006 02:04:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Waltzing Matilda:

You ask what does it take to be considered a conservative? Well, it's quite simple, really. Despite your policy positions or, in the case of public officials, your votes on issues; it really boils down to whether or not Phil Rodokanakis, Jim Young, like you. That's all it is. They have figured out that they can guilt trip some people into caving into their agenda despite its complete lack of emperical or analytical substance. Many of these folks lack the necessary combination of intellect, charisma, etc. to get elected to office themselves. So they try to influence as many officials as they can. Those who have the backbone to do what is right and sensible get to endure the name calling, guilt tripping, etc. But, just as Liberace used to "cry all the way to the bank" so, too, do the Sean Connaughtons, et. al. "cry all the way to re-election." And they get to sit around and get angry that they would have been elected if it wasn't for the popular people.


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