Monday, January 02, 2006

Race for the 29th

In the middle of Prince William County Senator Chuck Colgan is already beginning to cause some hubub as Republicans and Democrats begin to plot to win the seat. On the Republican Side: Anti-tax candidate Bob Fitzsimmonds would seem to be ahead of the rest of the pack, even though he lost the district before. He even has a PAC, The Conservative Victory PAC which he set up mid-2004. Chairman Sean T. Connaughton lives in the 29th..and could outraise Fitzsimmonds handidly and most likely secure the nomination. He would also be more than formidable against any Democrat and would win the seat. Colgan could even endorse Connaughton. As the district encompasses Manassas City and Manassas Park, Harry Parrish Jr. or Doug Waldron would also be strong candidates. On the Democrat side...Colgan has a large family who could also be itching for the seat.

22 Comments:

At 1/02/2006 08:17:00 PM, Blogger Hirons said...

Connaughton v. Fitzsimmonds primary would be UGLY!

You're right Connaughton should be able to outraise him, but Fitzsimmonds crowd would give him a run for his money in work and effort. If there's a democrat primary on the same day with two strong dems. against each other (i.e. Stoffregan v. Friedman {if either of them are in that district}} the vote total will be very close. Either way I think Sean comes out on top.

Question would be what would Lt. Gov. Bolling's be doing during that primary season?

 
At 1/02/2006 09:39:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why would Connaughton run for State Senate if he still has statewide ambitions?

 
At 1/02/2006 09:50:00 PM, Anonymous Out of Town said...

I must have missed something. Where is Colgan going? Was he nominated for something in Kaine's cabinent?

 
At 1/02/2006 10:03:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

Colgan is rumored to be retiring after this term is out..

 
At 1/02/2006 10:20:00 PM, Blogger Mitch Cumstein said...

"...but Fitzsimmonds crowd would give him a run for his money in work and effort."

I don't know about that. The Fitzsimmonds (anti-Connaughton) crowd may be vocal, but I don't believe they have the strength in numbers to really give Sean a run for his money if he chooses to do this. After his state-wide run, my guess is that Sean would get a significant amount of support from outside of the district, in addition to the tremendous help he'll get inside. It might be ugly, but it won't be particularly competitive.

 
At 1/03/2006 12:08:00 AM, Blogger mitch's wife said...

Chuck Colgan's relatives are all Republicans.

 
At 1/03/2006 08:06:00 AM, Blogger Hirons said...

Mitch, when it's one of their own they come out in force. May not be many, but they will work 'till the leather falls off. And they will hold no bars. Look no further then the two primaries Buck Waters faced against them. Buck drew support from most of the same crowd Sean will. However, Sean would have an advantage in magnitude because of his length of service, state-wide wide run and electablity in that district.

 
At 1/03/2006 08:10:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Fitzsimmonds carries allot of baggage from his previous two loses for this seat. In 1999, he really pissed off the Catholics (particularly at All Saints, the Catholic megachurch in Manassas) with his gross attacks on Chuck Colgan. In 2003, he pissed off the evangelical Protestants (particularly the Manassas Assembly of God, a megachurch in Manassas) with his gross attacks on Dave Mabie. He has a small following in the extreme right, but in 2007 the are going to be trying to defend the candidacies of Chapman, Cuccinelli, Marshall, Hugo, and O'brien -- all of whom will likely face primary and general election opponents.

 
At 1/03/2006 08:46:00 AM, Anonymous James W. said...

Anon,

Marshall will face primary competition? I find that hard to believe.

Does Chapman even live in the 50th? I imagine that will be a brutal primary.

 
At 1/03/2006 12:49:00 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said...

My question is whether Chairman Sean even wants this seat? Being Chairman of the BoS of a county with 330k+ residents would seem like a step back going to the Senate. I have also heard he has other aspirations anyway.
TC, I am sure you can give some insight on this.

 
At 1/03/2006 01:17:00 PM, Anonymous NoVA Scout said...

Think about this. In Connaughton's last county-wide primary for Chairman he took around 80% of the GOP vote. Against Bolling he took over 60% of the GOP vote in Prince William(although I haven't done the NLS/TC exercise of seeing how he did in the areas of PW that coincide with the 29th) And someone like Bob Fitzsimmonds is expected to make that a contest? Really. Sure it would be loud, but it wouldn't be close. Even if every active member of the Prince William Taxpayers Alliance voted for Big Bob, it wouldn't get him out of double digits.

But it won't happen. I frequently agree with GOPHokie, but rarely have the chance to do so publicly. But he's so right. It's great to see that from hi geographically-removed vantage point, he can see things so clearly. Why would anyone want to serve in the State Senate when he runs one of the biggest jurisdictions in the State? There's a very big difference in having an executive position where you can make things happen (like him or not, no one can dispute that Connaughton makes things happen in PW) and being one of a crowd of people who, except for a few Committee Chairmen, rarely get anything done. It would be a huge retrograde step for Connaughton. (This is one of the reasons I alwys found it ludicrous for Bolling and his people to say that Connaughton was really just trying to pump up some name recognition for a State Senate run).

One of the peculiarities of Virginia GOP politics is how focussed so many of us are on the General Assembly. Sure it's fun to watch from the outside, but is that really the only reservoior of competent political leadership around here? There's a marked tendency for everyone to look to that body for the next bright stars in statewide politics. I continue to consider the GA as a presumptive black mark (until actively proven to the contrary) for anyone seeking statewide office. I have seen very little impressive come out of there. Besides, the problems that face Virginia are almost unsolvable by persons with too much of a Richmond pedigreed. I found it it completely wrong that of the six statewide candidates, 3 were sitting GA members, 1 was a former member (Byrne) and the remaining two were Richmond insiders. This state is a lot more than a city of 170,000 (my estimate, if I'm too low, I apologize) on the James. The Commonwealth will take off when we start getting our leaders from outside that little terrarium.

 
At 1/03/2006 02:06:00 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said...

Thanks Scout, but why are you unable to agree with me publicly?
Also, I agree wholeheartedly with your thoughts on Richmond. Even so, I don't know what we can do to convince people that GA experience isnt needed for running for office at the congressional or statewide level (this dictated our primary where Bolling and McDonnell used their experience as a base and attacked their opponents for not having any).

 
At 1/03/2006 04:38:00 PM, Blogger James Young said...

I've heard this rumor the last two times, but this time, it may be true.

'Course, the comment that Colgan would endorse Chairman Sean is about all you need to know about what kind of Republican Chairman Sean is.

And BTW, Mitch, Bob was only barely beaten by Dave Mabie (whom I supported) last time around. And Dave is much more well-liked than Chairman Sean.

As for nova scout's comments, he demonstrates amply that he doesn't live in or understand PWC elections. Chairman Sean won 80% of his last County-wide primary vote because his primary opponent WASN'T A REPUBLICAN! He was a Stoffregen stooge. See my comments above for a little reality check on Bob in a primary against Chairman Sean.

 
At 1/03/2006 05:11:00 PM, Anonymous NoVA Scout said...

So James, are you saying that Connaughton had no opposition in the 2003 Republican primary? Must be a very popular guy, at least within the PW GOP community. As I understand, he waxed the Dems in the General also.

GOPHokie: I don't know - it seems to be sort of a news cycle thing. when I get around to reading you over at your site, a lot of other folks have already chimed in better than I could muster. In any event, you do good work.

 
At 1/03/2006 06:08:00 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said...

Thanks for the kind words Scout.
I think what james alludes to is a major imagine problem Chairman Sean has. While many of his supporters see him as able to cross party lines and get things done, many conservatives see Chairman Sean as a "moderate" when he gets endorsed by the Washington Post, Russ Potts and democrats like Chuck Colgan. If he is ever going to win a primary (or convention) on a statewide level, he needs to fix his imagine of being a "moderate".

 
At 1/04/2006 06:47:00 AM, Blogger AWCheney said...

Although Dave Mabie himself was very popular, he made the huge mistake of bringing in Dennis Petersen to run his campaign. Just ask Bob Fitzsimmonds how he was able to pull out a squeeker in the last days before the convention...that advantage will no longer exist.

 
At 1/04/2006 07:07:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jim Young supported Bob FitzSimmonds -- it is not surprising two three-time losers stick together and hate the world.

 
At 1/04/2006 09:36:00 AM, Blogger James Young said...

No, nova scout, I'm saying he had no REPUBLICAN opposition in the 2003 Republican primary. Even those dissatisfied with his tax-and-spend policies --- I among them --- recognized that his opponent was a Democrat run by Stoffregen as an effort to: (1) exploit that dissatisfaction; and (2) to keep Republicans from voting in the Dem primary for a Connaughton stooge running against Stoffregen. And Chairman Sean's opponent in the General was a buffoon who differed from Chairman Sean on tax-and-spend issues only in his greater enthusiasm for tax increases. Plus, anyone who thinks that he can go from Pot. News columnist to elected public official is a fool.

And Anon 7:07, you merely demonstrate your ignorance with that comment. Bob and Dave were and are both good friends. I nevertheless publicly endorsed Dave for the GOP nomination early in my then-column. Both Bob and Dave will tell you that, if you have the wit to ask them. And I'm only a "two-time loser," you misinformed twit.

 
At 1/04/2006 03:06:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What about 10th district state central? Didn't you lose that?

 
At 1/04/2006 07:15:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

There goes James Young again, and again, and again, and ...

 
At 1/05/2006 08:17:00 AM, Blogger James Young said...

10th District State Central is not an elected public office, and if you're as well-informed as you pretend to be, you'd know about the machine of the evil Jim Rich. And gee, I wonder how many races you've lost, Anon 3:06? Oops, you cower in anonymity, so I suspect you've never had the courage to offer yourself for any office.

 
At 1/05/2006 08:19:00 AM, Blogger James Young said...

'Course, by Anon 3:06's standard, I suppose I could cite the number of times I could cite having won: PWC YR Chairman (twice); Delegate to County, District, and State Conventions (too numerous to count); etc.

 

Post a Comment

<< Home