Tuesday, January 31, 2006

What went wrong in the 33rd?

So, what went wrong for the GOP in the 33rd Senate race? Did we have the wrong candidate? Would Minchew have been able to pull in enough of the 62% who voted for Herring over Staton to have won the race? Did we have the right candidate at the wrong time? Was Mick's candidacy too close in time to his father-in-law's defeat and the anti-Black forces were still geared up? Was it the message? The messenger? Both? Neither? Has Loudoun been Fairfax-ed politically or is this just returning this particular seat back over to the party (and family - Herring's father-in-law) that previously held it? Have the Dems improved their ground game and surpassed the GOPs vaunted 72-hour program? If so, how does the GOP get the upper hand again? By all news accounts, the GOP remained surprisingly unified publicly after Staton defeated Minchew for the nomination. If anything, that fact should make this loss all the more disconcerting to the GOP. That RPV NoVA task force better be gearing up and FAST!!!

10 Comments:

At 1/31/2006 10:31:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

I am about to post a huge one

 
At 1/31/2006 10:32:00 PM, Anonymous suedehead said...

Maybe this landslide loss will wake people up. The day of Dick Black, Bob FitzSimmonds and Chris Craddock is over. No more losing safe Republican seats.

Only mature, adult center-right candidates need apply.

 
At 1/31/2006 10:46:00 PM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

The problem is politics is in some ways becoming a child's game and many mature center-right adults have better things to do with their time. Heck, I'd rather be reading my daughter a story before bedtime than making the rounds at the functions you have to attend.

Sen. Allen has his priorities straight on this one. He'll do dinner fundraisers in DC, but leaves by 8 p.m. so he can get home before the kids go to bed. Now THAT is an admirable balance.

 
At 1/31/2006 10:50:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The money from the moderates was not there like it was for Herring from the Dem. Party.

 
At 1/31/2006 10:56:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

TC: First, I admire your dedication to the party more than words can express. I hope you always keep that enthusiasm. I again, however, must question the judgement of the RPV. Why did McDonnell have to name Mims to be Deputy AG? Why did someone not convince him to nominate another solid guy instead a risking a Senator from a marginal district. Why? Why? Why? We were stupid to risk Mims seat until this area settles down politically. The Warner/Kaine coattails in NOVA are still very strong. Why pick a fight? Do we Rs ever think practically?

 
At 1/31/2006 11:16:00 PM, Anonymous Stephen said...

By all news accounts, the GOP remained surprisingly unified publicly after Staton defeated Minchew for the nomination.

Not as unified as the Democrats. Consider where Herrings money came from versus Staton's. Herring's donations were evenly split around the state. Staton was dependent on in-district donations and got little help from out of area Republicans with big pockets. (The Senate Squishes come to mind.)

 
At 1/31/2006 11:49:00 PM, Anonymous NOVA Scout said...

I'm not sure the day of Bob Fitzsimmonds has evern been here, let alone over. But if anyone is thinking that someone like that is just the ticket for getting the GOP out of this gully it has got itself into, they've been sleeping through the last few months

 
At 2/01/2006 01:06:00 AM, Blogger criticallythinking said...

suedehead, I'm not sure this would have been considered a "safe" republican seat. It is clear that Loudoun has taken a shift toward the democrats, and it's going to take some good voter id and outreach to make this a safe area.

But in a special election where the winner got less than 10% of the electorate, it's hard to know for sure anything more than that having $120,000 dollars is better than having $20,000 dollars.

TC, I can't help myself, especially having read it already, I'm laughing about your "posting a huge one". :->

 
At 2/01/2006 08:48:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Staton was dependent on in-district donations and got little help from out of area Republicans with big pockets."

Staton's money came from developers (10K here, 10k there and a whole lot more). Just look at his loudoun report for supervisor in which he transferred 75K to his senate race. Kind of funny since he ran on a managed growth platform. Who is he kidding? Not the voters in loudoun. His lack of money from the party just goes to show they were not behind him and the likes of Black & Delgaudio. Putting lipstick on a pig doesn't change the fact it's still a pig.

 
At 2/02/2006 05:24:00 PM, Anonymous 10th District Conservative said...

Loudoun Rs did stay pretty unified. Chairman Minchew did an excellent public job of letting bygones be bygones and helping the Staton team.

 

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