Sunday, January 22, 2006

Will the House Be Scared?

If the proposed tax-increase continues on its path why wouldn't it pass in the House? Even though Delegates Hugo and Albo have already expressed that they do not believe it will...why wouldn't it? 1)The same Republicans who voted for it last time as still in office, or have been replaced by Democrats. 2)All incumbents(except Reese) who voted for the last increase successfully fended off challenges from the right, and will probably be able to do so again. 3)In the 67th Delegate Gary Reese who was beat by anti-tax Chris Craddock, now has a more liberal Democrat sitting in the seat. 4)The increase is already being spinned by the press as something which will solve all of the transportation problems of the state. This spin will probably cause it to poll well with voters, just as the last increase did. I enjoy the optimism from Delegates Albo and Hugo, but I do not see why Republican House members wouldn't vote for the increase.


At 1/22/2006 03:48:00 PM, Blogger Too Moderate said...

2 out of the six that were going to have challenges are not going back to Richmond. Even Russian Roulette is 1 out of 6.

At 1/22/2006 04:19:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It will pass because the "chickens" in the House won't put forward a proposal that will cut/re-direct current spending into transportation. Instead, the Howellie's will propose toll roads and magical surpluses to pay for transportation. In other words, since they won't have courage to cut spending the only option is taxes. They are pathetic as the Senate.

At 1/22/2006 04:23:00 PM, Blogger Shaun Kenney said...

Challengers statistically have a 5% chance of bumping off an incumbent.

Of the six targeted, 33% are no longer there, and two (Chapman and myself) came awfully close.

All this having been said, I don't believe that the threat of opposition from the right is going to be the deciding factor as to whether or not House members vote for or against a tax hike.

Rather, in the end, I don't believe many of the House members who voted for the tax hike in 2004 felt they were being leveled with. In fact, they were positively lied to about a "crisis" in state funding.

With all that background, does anyone really think the moderate Republicans are going to roll over twice?

In the end, I think it will go more towards a pride issue than anything else. At least, I'd like to hope so...

At 1/22/2006 04:27:00 PM, Blogger too conservative said...

Many of them were replaced by more liberal democrats.

This is not a plus for our side.

Our pickups downstate do not make up for the liberal addons upstate.

The votes will be the same.

I doubt Delegate Tom Rust, and Callahan up here would vote for a tax package again.

Shaun-Yea it will be interesting to see who would vote again.

Maybe VCAP and crew could then focus on one or two seats, instead of spreading supplies throughout the state.

At 1/22/2006 04:42:00 PM, Blogger nova_middle_man said...

2 things

1. The house is going to come up with a seperate transportation plan next week which is a good thing.

2. The majority of Virginians were for the tax increase/education spending. It remains to be seen about this proposal but I think the majority of Virginians are going to support the packages put forth by the Governor and Senate. Maybe some of us should start writing letters to the editor to influence public opinion.

At 1/22/2006 05:12:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Of the six targeted, 33% are no longer there, and two (Chapman and myself) came awfully close."

That says a lot about the state of Virginia politics that even a DA like Chapman can come close.

At 1/23/2006 05:50:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hasn't Sean Kenney's five minutes of fame ended?


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